Wisconsin Senate Update as Race Shifts to Toss-Up

Wisconsin’s Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican businessman Eric Hovde was reclassified as a “toss-up” by a major election forecaster on Tuesday, less than a month to Election Day.

Baldwin has been viewed as favored in the Badger State, which remains viewed as a toss-up in the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. But the Cook Political Report reclassified it from “Lean Democrat” to a “toss-up” after their latest poll showed her lead shrink to only two points, within the margin of error.

Baldwin and Hovde are facing off in what is expected to be one of the closest Senate races ahead of November 5, when control for the Senate is up for grabs. Republicans are increasingly optimistic about their chances of flipping the Senate due to a spade of strong polls in the Montana race, making it all the more important for Democrats to defend seats they currently hold to have a shot at retaining their slim control.

Henrik M. Schatzinger, a professor of political science at Ripon College outside Green Bay, told Newsweek the toss-up designation could reflect the tightening presidential race, though he believes Baldwin still has an edge.

“I don’t see how Hovde has found a message that sticks in voters’ minds and seriously hurts Badwin’s reputation. Among registered voters, 60 percent still believe that Baldwin is committed to serving the interests of Wisconsin,” he said.

The Cook reclassification could convince outside groups to begin investing more money in the race “now that they have some outside confirmation that the seat can be flipped,” he said.

Polls have shown Baldwin with a consistent lead over Hovde, though her advantage has narrowed. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate, Baldwin held a 5-point lead over Hovde on Tuesday; this compares to a 5.9 point lead on September 8 and a 6.6 point lead on August 8.

A Marquette Law School poll, considered the gold standard for Wisconsin political surveys, found Baldwin with a 6-point lead over Hovde in their latest poll. Fifty-one percent of respondents said they would back Baldwin, compared to 45 percent who said they were planning to vote for Hovde. An additional two percent said they are voting for other candidates.

The poll surveyed 798 likely voters from September 18 to September 26.

Elsewhere, a New York Times poll, conducted among 680 likely voters from September 21 to September 26, showed Baldwin leading by seven points (50 percent to 43 percent).

Cook’s poll, conducted by BSG/GS Strategy Group, showed 49 percent of respondents backing Baldwin, compared to 47 percent supporting Hovde. It polled 411 likely voters from September 19 to September 25.

This shows a tighter race than the forecaster’s poll over the summer, conducted among 404 likely voters from July 26 to August 2 showing Baldwin leading by seven points (50 percent to 43 percent).

Baldwin has managed to hold a lead because of her “strong incumbency record that not only appeals to the Democrats but has also earned her support among independents and even among some Republican-leaning voters,” said Schatzinger.

Andrew Mamo, Baldwin’s campaign spokesperson, responded to the shift to “toss-up” in a statement to Newsweek.

“This race was always going to be a toss up, that’s why Tammy Baldwin is working every day to unite Wisconsinites of all stripes and win. Next month, voters will reject California bank owner Eric Hovde’s insults, lies, and extreme policy positions and send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate to keep fighting for them,” he said.

Meanwhile, Zach Bannon, a spokesperson for Hovde’s campaign, expressed optimism about the ratings change.

“Sen. Baldwin’s radical agenda has sparked record high inflation, created chaos the southern border, and made our communities less safe. Eric Hovde is going to win because the people of Wisconsin are ready for change,” he said.

Tammy Baldwin Leads Eric Hovde in Fundraising

Wisconsin’s Senate race has also become one of the most expensive in the country, with Baldwin outraising and outspending Hovde.

As of July 24, she has raised nearly $36 million and spent about $29.8 million, according to the nonprofit OpenSecrets. She still has $6.3 million in the bank. Meanwhile, Hovde has raised $16.8 million and spent $13.6 million. He still has about $3.2 million on hand.

Outside PACs have spent tens of millions of dollars on the race as well.

Pro-Baldwin PACs have spent more than $3.9 million in support of her candidacy, and nearly $29 million against Hovde. Meanwhile, pro-Hovde PACs have spent about $6.7 million in support of him, and $24 million opposing Baldwin, according to OpenSecrets.

Baldwin’s fundraising lead “has allowed her to define Hovde as an out-of-touch, out-of-state billionaire who has made some head-scratching statements,” Schatzinger said, pointing to Baldwin advertisements that highlight Hovde’s comments suggesting some nursing home residents shouldn’t be voting.

In the presidential race, Harris holds a 1.6 point lead over Trump in the average of recent polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate. Wisconsin has swung back and forth between Democrats and Republicans in recent elections.

President Joe Biden carried it by about 0.63 points in 2020. Four years earlier, Trump flipped it red, winning it by about 0.7 points. Prior to Trump’s victory, Wisconsin last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1984.

Baldwin last won reelection in 2018, defeating Republican Leah Vukmir by nearly 11 percentage points. She was first elected in 2012, formerly representing a Congressional district that included Madison.

While Baldwin has successfully painted Hovde in a negative light, she should focus more on the economy in the final stretch of the campaign, Schatzinger said. Hovde, he added, needs to work to find ways to attack Baldwin’s record, convince outside groups to invest in the race and zero in on get-out-the-vote efforts.

“The whole party is relying a lot on untested super PACs—Turning Point Action and America PAC—for their get-out-the-vote efforts. They are dealing with a well-oiled Democratic machine in Wisconsin that can make a difference in a close election,” Schatzinger said.