Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump make their final pitches to voters today, as the race to the White House comes to an end in what polls suggest will be a photo finish.
Both candidates are intensifying their campaigns across key battleground states on Monday, as fallout continued from a shock Iowa poll that put the vice president ahead in a ruby red state.
The Democratic nominee is focusing her efforts on Pennsylvania, a pivotal state for her campaign, with rallies in Allentown, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. The latter two events will feature appearances from celebrity figures such as Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey. Katy Perry is also set to perform.
Several other Harris campaign events across all seven swing states are planned around the same time as the Pennsylvania rallies.
Trump, meanwhile, has scheduled a series of rallies throughout the day. He will begin with a morning rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, followed by events in Reading and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. His day will conclude with a late-night rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Follow Newsweek‘s live blog throughout the day for the latest updates.
06:54 AM EST
Thousands of Trump supporters mobilized to block election certification
Thousands of supporters of former president Donald Trump have been trained how to pressure local election officials to refuse to certify the vote ahead of November’s election, according to a new report from Lawfare.
David Clements, a former law professor who gained notoriety promoting Trump’s baseless claims about the 2020 election being stolen from him, has hosted training sessions across the county, billed as a “Gideon 300” tour—named for the biblical figure who defeated a vast army with just 300 men.
This year, he has hosted events attended by thousands of people in at least 40 counties in more than a dozen states, including battlegrounds Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, according to Lawfare.
Read More: Thousands of Trump Supporters Mobilized to Block Election Certification
06:40 AM EST
Harris narrowly ahead in prediction market
PredictIt is an online prediction market that allows users to trade shares on the outcomes of political and financial events.
Shares are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting the market’s collective assessment of an event’s likelihood. Users can buy or sell shares at current market prices or place offers at desired prices.
The chart below shows that a “Yes” share for Kamala Harris was priced at $0.53 on Sunday, meaning the market estimates a 53 percent chance of the vice president winning the election.
Read More: How Accurate Are Betting Odds at Predicting Elections?
06:29 AM EST
Early voting period ends in most states – here are the numbers
Early voting periods vary by state, with most concluding in late October or early November. For the 2024 general election on November 5, many states have already ended their early voting periods. For example, Georgia’s early voting concluded on November 1.
A few states, such as Alaska and Colorado, offer early voting through Election Day.
As of Sunday night, 78 million people have voted early, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. In-person voting accounted for 42.6 million of that total figure, with more than 35 million postal ballots returned.
Total voted by party registration:
🔵 14,809,891
🔴 14,120,585
Party registration statistics are for states that have party registration.
Total voted by gender:
👩 8,885,885
👨 7,179,299
Reporting states with gender data: Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia
06:16 AM EST
Will the polls be right this time?
The polls for the 2024 presidential election show an agonizingly tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, one that could swing either way, with little to split the two candidates across the seven battleground states that will likely determine the result.
But since 2016, when the Republican nominee Trump delivered a surprise victory over the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, a result not widely or clearly anticipated in national polls, the polling industry has come under close scrutiny for its accuracy.
Similar issues in subsequent years, such as the overestimating of support for President Joe Biden over Trump in the 2020 election race, and underestimating the scale of the Democratic vote in some key 2022 midterm races, have kept the issue alive.
But polling companies have put in a lot of work to revise and refine their models, trying to recalibrate their assumptions to better capture representative samples of American voters, and so restore their statues as barometers of the nation’s thoughts and feelings.
Read More: Will 2024 Election Polls Be Right This Time? ‘Disconcerting’ Signs
06:07 AM EST
Who’s ahead in the swing states?
Read More: Donald Trump Campaign Bashes Polling as Numbers Against Them in Final Days
05:57 AM EST
About that Iowa poll…
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by esteemed pollster Ann Selzer and published on Saturday, revealed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the state.
It caused something of a polling earthquake; Iowa is considered a Republican stronghold, but Selzer has not been wrong in a presidential race since 2004.
Statistician Nate Silver called it “shocking,” while praising Selzer’s record of being right.
Trump called Selzer a “Trump hater.” In 2016, when Selzer’s final Iowa poll showed him leading former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by seven points—a prediction that closely matched the actual outcome—Trump praised her work.
Read More: Who Is Ann Selzer? Pollster’s Record as Iowa Poll Shows Kamala Harris Ahead
05:40 AM EST
OPINION: US courts may face their ultimate test after Election Day
John Adams was the first president to live in the White House. His blessing is carved into the mantel of the State Dining Room. It reads: “I pray Heaven to bestow the best of Blessings on this House and all that shall hereafter inhabit it. May none but honest and wise Men ever rule under this roof.”
Let’s ask ourselves today, will a wise and honest man rule in the White House if we elect former President Donald Trump? Trump has been convicted of 34 felonies in addition to having been found to have committed rape, fraud, and insurrection. He is accused of making off with the nation’s secrets and hiding them in his bathroom. In Georgia and Washington, DC, he is charged with trying to defraud the American people out of electing the president of their choice.
Trump’s opponent, Kamala Harris, is our vice president, a former prosecutor, and a state attorney general. No hint of dishonesty has tarnished her, and she is pledged to the rule of law. Would Adams have preferred a deeply dishonorable man in the White House over an honorable woman?
Tuesday, Nov. 5, is America’s stress test. Do we prize honesty? Are we dedicated to what former President George W. Bush described as “trust over cynicism, of community over chaos”?
Read More: U.S. Courts May Face Their Ultimate Test After Tuesday | Opinion
05:34 AM EST
Multiple empty seats at Trump’s final Georgia rally
Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Macon, Georgia. There were multiple empty seats at at least one point during Trump’s speech.
AP
There were multiple empty seats at Donald Trump‘s final rally in the crucial swing state of Georgia on Sunday, footage and photos show.
Rally attendance and crowd size have been major topics in the run-up to Tuesday’s election.
During the presidential candidates’ debate on TV on September 13, Vice President Kamala Harris said people leave Trump’s events “out of exhaustion and boredom”—something the former president has pushed back on multiple times since.
Clips posted on X, formerly Twitter, showed several empty seats at the Atrium Health Amphitheater in the city of Macon, where Trump was speaking over the weekend.
Read More: Donald Trump Met With Multiple Empty Seats During Final Georgia Rally
05:29 AM EST
Bad news for Trump as women flock to Harris
In the final stretch of the election, analysis by Newsweek indicates a significant gender divide, with women voters showing a strong preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, while men show a strong preference for the former president.
Newsweek looked at the national polls since October 28 that provide a breakdown of voting intention based on gender and found that on average, women break for Harris by eight points, while men break for Trump by 10 points. That amounts to an average gender gap of nine points.
According to Newsweek’s analysis, polls show that on average, Harris has the support of 52 percent of female voters and 43 percent of male voters. Meanwhile, 53 percent of male voters back Trump compared to 44 percent of female voters.
Read More: Final Polls Reveal Trump Faces Huge Gender Gap as Women Flock to Harris
05:26 AM EST
Campaign tracker: Where are the candidates today?
🔵Vice President Kamala Harris is spending the day in Pennsylvania, with stops scheduled in Scranton, Allentown, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
🔴Former President Donald Trump is also making a stop in Pittsburgh, and Reading, Pennsylvania today, in between events in Raleigh, North Carolina and Grand Rapids, Michigan.
Collectively, those three battleground states make up 50 Electoral College votes.
What about the VP candidates?
Ohio Sen. JD Vance will be touring Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin today, and also has a stop in Atlanta as the Republican ticket tries to flip Georgia.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will be focused on the Midwest, with an event in his home state, as well as others in Wisconsin and Michigan.
