Belarus’ military buildup by the Ukraine border is a move by Alexander Lukashenko to show loyalty to Vladimir Putin, which could backfire if he involved Minsk further in his ally’s war, the country’s opposition has told Newsweek.
The Belarusian president said last week that a third of the army had been deployed to its border. Deputy Chief of the Belarusian General Staff, Viktor Tumar, has warned Belarusians would fight any Ukrainian invasion, even if there is no evidence Kyiv has such plans. Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Foreign Ministry for comment.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said on August 10 that Lukashenko had ordered troops to the Gomel (Homiel) and Mazyr directions due to the situation in Ukraine and Russia’s Kursk oblast where Kyiv had staged an incursion. Social-media users have posted images of Belarusian tanks, armored personnel carriers, and trucks being deployed to the border.
However, Lukashenko “is playing a dangerous game” by sending troops to Ukraine’s border, said Franak Viačorka, senior adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. She is the Belarusian opposition politician who stood against Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election, condemned internationally as rigged.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin (left) and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko (right) at Valaam Monastery, northern Russia, on July 25, 2024. Kyiv has warned Belarus about its military buildup by its border with Ukraine.
ALEXANDER KAZAKOV/Getty Images
“This isn’t about defending Belarus—it’s a desperate attempt to kiss up to Putin and distract from Russia’s failures in Kursk,” Viačorka told Newsweek.
The only president Belarus has known since the end of the Soviet Union, Lukashenko has relied on Putin to maintain power. While Lukashenko has not committed Belarus to a more direct role in Russia’s invasion, he has allowed the country to be used to stage attacks.
Russian nuclear weapons under Moscow’s control are in Belarusian territory, and the members of the so-called “Union State” cemented economic ties earlier this year. Amid speculation over what future role Belarus might play in the war, Kyiv has warned Belarus not to make “tragic mistakes” with its growing military presence near the frontier and vowed a response if its border was breached.
In an assessment prepared for the Belarusian opposition, which has been seen by Newsweek, around 1,100 troops had been sent to around 30 miles from the border with Ukraine between August 10 and August 23.
This casts doubt on Lukashenko’s claims on August 18 that “one-third of the army” had been sent to the southern border, although mechanized units were sent to the area for the first time since 2022.
However, the analysis said, while the situation is developing, the troops do not pose a threat to Ukraine, and it was for propagandistic and political, rather than military, purposes.
This chimes with an assessment that Konrad Muzyka from Rochan Consulting wrote in an X thread that Belarusian armed forces “would require a significant increase in manpower through mobilization” to conduct an offensive.
Public opinion polls among Belarusians show they largely oppose any closer involvement by Minsk in the war. Also, pro-Ukrainian partisan groups have emerged in Belarus where they have conducted sabotage attacks, which are aimed at both curtailing Putin and reflecting opposition to Lukashenko.
“It’s all smoke and mirrors,” said Viačorka, who added that Lukashenko “is scrambling to prove his loyalty to Putin, sending troops to the border as if to say, ‘Look, I’m defending your front lines.’
“It’s a clear attempt to show he’s still Putin’s man, but it’s all about saving his own skin,” Viačorka said. “He’s seen Ukraine take the fight deep into Russia, and he thinks that similar could happen to Belarus,” he added.
“If it comes to that, nobody in Belarus is going to lift a finger to save him—not his people, and certainly not Russia.”
