Upsets can be the most fun part about sports, especially if you are correctly able to call your shot on an underdog to win straight up.
In college football, upsets happen all the time, as there is always some unknown when betting on “kids,” as the people say.
So, please see below for our best NCAAF Week 5 underdog predictions.
Alabama Moneyline (+110) Caesars
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide, 7:30 p.m. ET
For the game of the week (and possibly the season), we like the home underdogs in Alabama to take down Georgia. This is admittedly only a slight upset, as Alabama is +110 on the moneyline and +2 on the spread, but they are still ‘dogs nonetheless.
This is going to be a titanic matchup between these two teams, but we lean toward Alabama to get the job done. The QBs will be the headliners, as Georgia’s Carson Beck and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe are potential Heisman Trophy winners, and we give the slight edge to Milroe here.
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Milroe is an excellent dual-threat QB who has completed over 70 percent of his passes in two separate games this year, while also running for 156 yards and six rushing touchdowns on the season.
He does an excellent job knowing how and when to use his legs, which Beck does not quite have at his disposal.
The lack of explosiveness on the offensive side for Georgia is a concern, something that reared its ugly head in a gross 13-12 victory over Kentucky on September 14.
Yes, the Dawgs got the win, but it was not an impressive showing. The biggest concern was in the trenches, where the UGA OL looked shaky. So far this season, Georgia’s DL has not dominated the way we expected to see from a team this loaded with talent.
The biggest concern with Alabama is its run defense, which has allowed 132.3 rushing yards per game, so if they can clean that up, they should be able to limit the Georgia offense.
Neither of these teams have had that difficult of a schedule to date, with the key difference being that Alabama has dominated its opponents, defeating Western Kentucky, South Florida and Wisconsin by a combined score of 147-26.
We like Alabama to get the job done on Saturday.
Alabama Moneyline (+110): 0.50 Units
UNC Moneyline (+125) Bet365
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils, 4 p.m. ET
This is going to be one of those classic plug-your-nose-and-bet type of wagers, but UNC is a great bet to bounce back after last week’s debacle against James Madison University.
There is no sugarcoating what happened last week to the Tar Heels, as they allowed 70 points at home to JMU. So, this represents a great buy-low opportunity against a Duke squad that we are not impressed with.
Even though they are undefeated, Duke’s 4-0 record is not overly impressive when you look into it. The Blue Devils defeated Elon in Week 1 by 23, but that was a close game midway through the third quarter, and the following two victories were against Northwestern and UConn. Duke was losing in the fourth quarter of both of those games.
The Duke offense has not been able to get much going, especially on the ground. They do not have a mobile QB in Maalik Murphy, and their running game ranks 131st in the nation in success rate.
The biggest issue by far with UNC is its defense, as the offense was not the problem last week. They are on their third QB of the season in Jacolby Criswell, but he has actually looked good.
He threw for 475 yards last week in the loss to JMU, and he has provided much more to the UNC passing attack than previous QB Conner Harrell. UNC also still has one of the best running backs in the country in Omarion Hampton.
We are also expecting some turnover regression in favor of UNC and against Duke. UNC is in the bottom 10 in the nation in turnover margin, while Duke is in the top 10.
Of course, some teams are better than others at forcing turnovers on defense and protecting the ball on offense, but turnovers are generally a stat that is not sticky year-over-year or even week-over-week.
Look for UNC to bounce back on the road against its in-state rival.
UNC Moneyline (+125): 0.50 Units
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