It might feel like a letdown after one of the best weeks of the college football season, but the Week 8 NCAAF betting slate still has plenty of good games to dive into.
Part of the fun when betting on college football is calling your shot on the major upsets that end up occurring on a weekly basis. Last week, in one of the biggest games of the season, the Oregon Ducks took down the Ohio State Buckeyes as slight ‘dogs in an instant classic.
While this week does not have quite as many high-profile games across the country as we had in Week 7, here are our favorite college football upset predictions for Week 8.
Illinois +3.5 (-110) Bet365
Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini, 3:30 p.m. ET
Calling this Michigan football team bad is an unfair characterization, but the Wolverines are clearly not close to the team they were last year, and probably not even as good as their 4-2 record indicates.
Yes, they are 4-2, but they are only 1-5 against the spread. These are the best types of teams to fade, as the general public will continue to overvalue them due to the fact that they are still winning games.
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So, that is exactly what we are doing in this game: fading Michigan to not cover the field goal spread against Illinois.
The biggest issue with Michigan, of course, is its offense. Last year, when Michigan went 15-0 and won the national championship, it averaged 382 yards and 35.9 points per game.
This year, those numbers are all the way down to 306.3 yards and 23.5 points per game. Despite the 4-2 record, they are actually being outgained by 30 yards per game.
The Illinois defense should be able to shut down this Michigan offense, as it had been playing very well up until a complete collapse in the second half last week. Prior to last week, the Fighting Illini had only been allowing 14.2 points per game.
The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread as favorites three straight times, while the Fighting Illini are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as home underdogs.
This has the makings of a 17-14 shootout, so taking the 3.5 points with Illinois is the way to go here.
Illinois +3.5 (-110): 1 Unit
Tennessee Moneyline (+130) Caesars
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tennessee Volunteers, 3:30 p.m. ET
These are two teams that have been scuffling as of late, but we are riding with another home ‘dog for our second pick of the day, this time taking Tennessee to win straight up over SEC rival Alabama.
Both of these teams were riding high the first six weeks of the college football season, but have had a rough go of it late.
Alabama beat Georgia in an epic showdown back on Sept. 28, but since then it has lost to Vanderbilt and followed that up with a near-loss to South Carolina at home last Saturday.
Tennessee, meanwhile, got out to a scorching start to the season, but the Volunteers’ last two weeks have essentially mirrored Alabama’s. Tennessee lost to Arkansas two weeks ago, and followed up that loss with a close game against Florida, a game in which Tennessee finally won in OT.
With Nick Saban no longer in town, the Tide’s biggest weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, and that is the biggest mismatch in this game: the Bama D vs. Tennessee’s offense led by stud redshirt freshman QB Nico Iamaleava.
The Vols were held back somewhat the last two weeks, but on the season, they are still averaging a whopping 42.2 points per game (ninth-most in the nation).
On the other side of the field, the Alabama defense is 55th in the nation in total defense, and it has shown over the last couple weeks that its secondary can be taken advantage of.
It is tough to win on the road in college, as both of these teams just learned two weeks ago, so we will roll with the home team in Tennessee to win in this SEC clash.
Tennessee moneyline (+130): 0.50 Units
Houston Moneyline (+180) Caesars
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks, 3:30 p.m. ET
Despite just talking about how hard it is to win on the road in college football, we are backing another road underdog for our third and final pick of the day.
The reality is going into Tennessee and winning is a completely different animal than going into Kansas and winning. Kansas is 1-5 straight up, and it somehow has not covered a single spread this entire season.
The best unit on the field in this game is the Houston defense, which is 32nd in the nation in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, and 25th in success rate, and the Cougars are coming off a solid 30-19 victory over TCU last week.
The Houston offense has been brutal for most of the season, but it seems to have found a spark in new starting QB Zeon Chriss.
Chriss being inserted as the starter last Saturday worked wonders for the Houston rushing offense specifically, as UH ran for over 200 yards on the Horned Frogs, including 97 yards on just 11 carries by Chriss.
Houston’s ground game should have its way against a horrendous Kansas defense that ranks 101st in EPA per rush.
Not only that, but the Kansas defense is expected to be missing multiple starters as well. Houston gets the win in this one.
Houston moneyline (+180): 0.50 Units
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