Three months ago, as spring turned to summer in the U.S., voters were staring down the barrel of a presidential race that many found hard to get excited over, if not downright unpalatable. Poll after poll showed voters were practically begging Democrats and Republicans to nominate candidates other than Joe Biden and Donald Trump. These were the “double haters” who, it was thought then, would be determining the election.
Now, after a summer that saw one of those candidates drop out of the race, the other become the target of two assassination attempts, and a third vault to her party’s nomination without any struggle, both parties are heading toward November with standard-bearers that are actually somewhat popular — at least by the standards of today’s polarized electorate.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump now appear to have near-identical favorability ratings among voters, with each candidate seeing a notable boost over the past month.
Harris saw a 16-point swing in her favorability among voters polled by NBC News in September compared to July, going from 32 percent to 48 percent – a rate of improvement that pollsters haven’t seen for any politician since George W. Bush in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.
The NBC survey is not the only to show a shift in public opinion for the Democratic nominee, with a Gallup poll showing a 10-point increase between June and September – 34 to 44 percent – putting her close to Trump, who was viewed positively by 46 percent of those asked. That number was up five points from August.
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“The reasons are clear: they were low, because Biden’s numbers were low,” pollster John Zogby said in reference to Harris’ favorability ratings. “The only press that she was really getting was negative press – about the border, obviously about the economy, and because, frankly, she was being trashed by the White House.”
Left: Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, speaks during an event at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Centre on September 20, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. Right: Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the Israeli American Council National Summit at the Washington Hilton on September 19, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Joe Raedle/Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Harris has won over those Biden couldn’t
The Vice President’s popularity among voters dropped following the 2020 election, bouncing around under 40 percent until President Biden dropped out of the race in July, per a Five Thirty Eight analysis.
Trump, meanwhile, is notorious for having a very narrow “ceiling” and “floor” of popularity, which is why his five point swing in the Gallup poll is noteworthy.
While both candidates enjoy near-unanimous support from voters in their own party, their favorability numbers are softer among independents, with Harris seeing a 35-50 favorable/unfavorable split in Gallup’s latest poll, to Trump 44-53 percent.
“She’s still not completely home, yet, but she has raised the numbers dramatically among Black voters from say the mid-sixties, even low-sixties, into the eighties,” Zogby told Newsweek, while also noting a roughly 20 percent jump in her support among Latino voters.
The last time there was such a sharp change in favorability for a president was in late 2001, when then-President George W. Bush saw his approval surge past 90% in the days and weeks following the attacks of Sept. 11.
US President George W. Bush (L), standing next to retired firefighter Bob Beckwith, 69, speaks to volunteers and firemen as he surveys the damage at the site of the World Trade Center in New York in this 14 September 2001 file photo. The Republican’s approval rating rose dramatically in the days after the attacks.
PAUL RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Images
At that time, Americans were largely united in their desire for military action to combat terrorism, which Bush offered. His handling of the invasion of Iraq in 2003 marked the beginning of a slow and steady downward trend that put him at 25 percent favorability in Oct. 2008.
While no presidential candidate since 2012 has enjoyed a favorability rating above 50 percent — a reflection of how polarized U.S. politics has become in the last decade — Trump’s steadiness in the polls shows near-unwavering support from his core base. Harris, meanwhile, has managed to win over some parts of the Democratic base President Biden was struggling with before he bowed out.
Zogby said that it would be difficult for either to win a majority on the favorability question, as roughly 40 percent on each side are conditioned to view the opposing candidate poorly from the get-go.
Where can each candidate increase their popularity?
“Now, there are a lot of folks, particularly independents, who are not watching. Who are not paying close attention,” Zogby added. “Pollsters and reporters are watching, but not everybody is watching that closely.”
The key for both candidates, he said, were young voters — young women for Harris and young men for Trump. How each nominee presents themselves to these groups could make the difference with that favorability gap on election day.
With young women, Zogby said, reproductive rights, climate change, and the war in Gaza were policy areas Harris needed to make her position clear on.
“The Taylor Swift thing has not hurt at all,” Zogby said, referring to the singer’s endorsement of Harris after the presidential debate. “There are substantial numbers of young women registering to vote.”
On the other side, young men, especially Latino and Black men, were the key for Trump, the pollster explained.
“He had been really overperforming, for a Republican, when Biden was still in the race,” Zogby continued. “He and Vance are clearly running a ‘guy’ thing.”
