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Donald Trump’s Chances of Losing North Carolina: Polls

September 24, 2024
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A new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris inching ahead of Donald Trump in North Carolina, a state where the numbers continue to show a tight race.

The Elon University Poll showed that 46 percent of respondents said they would vote for Harris if the election was held today, compared with 45 percent who said they would vote for Trump.

The polling was conducted between September 4 and 13 of a sample of 800 registered voters, with a +/-3.74 percent margin of error.

Recent polling from the state has continually shown the pair neck-and-neck, often with Trump slightly ahead.

In response to a question about the Elon University Poll, Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung directed Newsweek to New York Times/Siena College polling that puts Trump in the lead. It put the Republican two points ahead on 49 percent to Harris’ 47 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email.

Another poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in partnership with The Telegraph shows Trump leading Harris by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent.

One poll by Victory Insights had Trump four points ahead of Harris, the largest margin he beats her with in any recent survey.

However, one Morning Consult poll shows Harris winning the vote of 49 percent of respondents, compared with Trump’s 47 percent.

Another recent poll by Emerson College for The Hill also puts Harris narrowly ahead of Trump, 49 percent to 48 percent.

North Carolina is a key battleground state which both Republicans and Democrats are vying to win.

Trump
Donald Trump speaks at a rally on September 21, 2024, in Wilmington, North Carolina. Polls show a tight race between him and Kamala Harris in the state.
Donald Trump speaks at a rally on September 21, 2024, in Wilmington, North Carolina. Polls show a tight race between him and Kamala Harris in the state.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The state hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 2008.

Trump has won the state twice. He narrowly beat President Joe Biden in North Carolina in 2020, by a margin of just 1.34 percent, or just under 75,000 votes.

He also won in 2016 against Hillary Clinton by a margin of 3.66 percent.

Both Harris and Trump have been campaigning in the state, hosting rallies in recent weeks.

Republicans have also been grappling with backlash after CNN reported that Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for North Carolina governor, had allegedly made a series of controversial comments online on an adult website, including calling himself a “Black Nazi.”

Trump has appeared to attempt to distance himself from Robinson, who he endorsed earlier this year, since the controversy emerged.

Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College recently told New York Magazine that current polls show the race is too close to predict an outcome.

“What has been pretty stunning to me is that the Harris–Trump polling numbers are a coin toss. It is within the margin of error, so there is no clear front-runner,” he said.

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