Former President Donald Trump‘s chances of winning the 2024 election are at their highest since July, according to an online betting platform.
Polymarket, funded partly by longtime Trump backer Peter Thiel, shows that Trump’s chances of winning the election have hit 60 percent, the highest since July 30.
Before Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate, Trump’s chances of winning were between 60 and 70 percent. However, the Republican‘s chances dwindled significantly after President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign, with odds for Harris first overtaking the odds for Trump on August 8.
Since then, Harris and Trump’s chances of winning have stood within 1 and 8 points of each other, with Harris leading the former president through most of August and September.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Since October 5, Trump’s chances have shot up significantly, overtaking Harris. Polls have shown that the gap between Harris and Trump is narrowing and that the battleground states are shifting toward Trump.
In Wisconsin, Trump has led seven polls, while Harris has only led in three, including surveys by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Research Co. and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates, in the past two weeks. Every poll conducted in Wisconsin in the past two weeks has shown either Harris or Trump leading by 1 or 2 points or tied.
Former President Donald Trump at a campaign event in Atlanta on October 15. Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election are the highest they have been since July.
Alex Brandon/AP
Harris is ahead by 0.5 points in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight‘s poll tracker. However, the tracker shows her lead has dropped from 1.6 points since October 1. Pollster Nate Silver‘s analysis shows she is 0.8 points ahead in the state, down from 1.9 points on October 1.
Recent polls in other key swing states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania, also reflect a tightening race between Harris and Trump.
In Michigan, Harris’ lead has shrunk from 1.9 points to just 0.7 points since October 1, according to FiveThirtyEight. Silver’s tracker shows her lead dropping from 2.1 to 1 point over the same period.
In Pennsylvania, Harris’ advantage has grown slightly by 0.1 points to 0.7 percent, though Silver’s model shows her lead decreasing from 1.2 to 0.6 points.
In Nevada, where Harris currently leads by 0.7 to 0.8 points according to both pollsters, the race remains competitive, with Trump’s lead fluctuating between 1 and 6 points in recent polls. The vice president’s position in the state has weakened, dropping from a 1-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s tracker and 1.8 points in Silver’s since the start of October.
Trump holds narrow leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, with both trackers indicating small gains for him in all three states since October 1, though the race remains close. FiveThirtyEight shows his lead growing by 0.1 to 0.2 points, while Silver’s tracker shows slight increases in Arizona and North Carolina but a 0.1-point dip in Georgia.
Harris maintains a lead nationally, with FiveThirtyEight putting her ahead by 2.4 points and Silver by 2.8 points. However, her path to victory relies heavily on swing states. Harris needs 44 Electoral College votes from toss-up states, while Trump needs 51 to win. A combination of wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd District would be enough for Harris to secure the presidency.
Silver’s latest forecast suggests Harris is on track to achieve this, but her campaign should be wary of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Michigan was seen as a safer bet for Harris, RealClearPolitics recently reported Trump flipping the state and Nevada and Pennsylvania in his favor.
Silver has noted that this election may be the closest he’s ever seen. His October 14 forecast showed Harris’ chances of winning the Electoral College dropping to 51.8 percent, a 6-point decline since late September.
Nonetheless, Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and the director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London, told Newsweek that recent polls are not evidence that the Harris campaign is crumbling.
“It’s a reminder that this race is razor-tight,” Gift said. “Absent a major shakeup in the campaigns or some other ‘October surprise,’ we’re unlikely to learn much from small variations in the polls from here until November 5. Ultimately, the election will be determined as much by which coalitions turn out to cast their ballot as by last-minute shifts among a shrinking pool of undecided voters.”
