A polling aggregator’s Electoral College map forecast has shifted Minnesota from one that leans toward Vice President Kamala Harris to a toss-up.
On September 23, Real Clear Polling had the state as a toss-up in the 2024 presidential race after listing it as lean Harris on July 27.
If Minnesota—whose governor is Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz—were to be in play for former President Donald Trump, it could provide him with another path to victory. Currently the race looks set to come down to small margins in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during an event at the Cobb Energy Performing Arts Centre on September 20 in Atlanta, Georgia. Real Clear Polling now lists Minnesota as a toss-up state after previously categorizing it as lean Harris.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
A Trump victory in Minnesota in November would also be considered a major upset, as the state has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in the last 12 elections.
Real Clear Polling’s shift to move Minnesota and its 10 Electoral College votes to a toss-up puts Trump ahead with 219 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 215.
The updated forecast map shows there are still 104 Electoral College votes that could go either way, including the seven battleground states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
The last time Real Clear Polling considered Minnesota a toss-up was in March. The previous move to categorize it as lean Harris arrived days after President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign.
Real Clear College’s previous two forecast map changes were to move New Hampshire’s four Electoral College votes and Virginia’s 13 from toss-ups to lean Harris.
Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaign teams and Real Clear Polling for comment via email.
Other forecasters’ predictions and polling suggest Harris is on course to win Minnesota.
A Minnesota Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll of 800 likely Minnesota voters released Monday showed Harris with a 5-point lead (48 percent to 43 percent). The poll was conducted September from 16 to 18 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
A MinnPost-Embold Research poll of 1,616 likely voters, conducted between September 4 and 8, also showed Harris with a 5-point lead (49 percent to 44 percent). The results have a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.
Embold Research pollster Jessica Mason said this means the outcome could end up being closer, but “we would still consider Kamala to be leading this race in Minnesota.”
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Hubert H. Humphrey School and the Department of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, previously said undecided voters could help Trump in the state.
“It’s quite possible—in Minnesota and elsewhere—that two-thirds of the 5 percent to 10 percent undecided will break in favor of Trump and tilt the race,” Jacobs told Newsweek.
Real Clear Politics says Harris has a 5.3-percent average lead over Trump in Minnesota, based on recent polling. The average poll tracker from 538, formerly FiveThirtyEight, says Harris has a 5.9-percent lead in the state, while Cook Political Report lists Minnesota “likely” Democratic and forecasters Race to the White House are giving Harris a nearly 96 percent chance of victory there.
In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump in Minnesota by 7 points after Trump lost to Hillary Clinton by 1.5 points in 2016.
