The mind behind Fox News’ election decision desk in 2020 has made a prediction on when the results of the 2024 election will be confirmed.
Arnon Mishkin, who led the broadcaster’s team of analysts on election night four years ago, said that there is a chance results could drop on the Saturday following election night, meaning the winner of the election would be confirmed on November 9.
In an interview with Politico, Mishkin, who backed Fox News’ controversial early call of Arizona for President Joe Biden in 2020, said that the election could be very close, and results for decisive swing states would be needed before an accurate call could be made.
Mishkin, who does not work for Fox but has led their desk since 2008, said: “The race seems very, very close. It is dependent on a number of states, like Pennsylvania, that we believe are going to be reporting in a pattern similar to the way they have reported in the past.
“So I’d say, the over/under is Saturday. Which was when the call was made last time. Which is when Pennsylvania is likely to come in.”
Voters fill out their ballots on the second day of early voting in the 2024 presidential election at the Board of Elections Loop Super Site in Chicago, Illinois, on October 4, 2024. The counting of early mail-in ballots could mean that results of the election may not be clear until days after voters go to the polls on November 5.
Getty Images
Pennsylvania was one of the last swing states to announce its results due to the large amount of mail-in ballots in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The result of its then-20 Electoral College votes pushed Joe Biden over the 270 threshold needed to win, meaning its results signaled the end of the election.
Mishkin said that a similar situation could be possible this time round, though it will be “a little harder” to predict results as the split between mail-in voting and in-person voting is harder.
“I believe that Joe Biden won every state in the mail-in vote with the exception of Alabama—and that Trump won every state on Election Day with the exception of Vermont and maybe Connecticut.”
The number of mail-in ballots requested in swing states has significantly reduced since 2020 due to the waning pressure of COVID.
However, Democrats have remained reliant on postal ballots since 2020, after increasing negative rhetoric surrounding voting by mail within the Republican party, popularized by former President Donald Trump.
Over 14 million voters have already cast their ballots, through either absentee ballots or early in-person voting, which has started in dozens of states, including several swing states, like Georgia and North Carolina.
Polls are currently extremely close, with Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump considered neck and neck in the Midwest, where the election is likely to be decided.
Do you have a story we should be covering? Do you have any questions about the 2024 presidential election? Contact LiveNews@newsweek.com.
