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How Jewish Voters Could Affect Donald Trump in Swing States

September 20, 2024
in Missleading
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Donald Trump suggested on Thursday that Jewish people would share a significant amount of blame if he loses the 2024 election, a comment that could end up harming the Republican in the close presidential race.

Jewish groups and figures have condemned the former president for his remarks, which he made at a “Fighting Anti-Semitism in America” event in Washington, D.C.

“I really haven’t been treated right, but you haven’t been treated right because you’re putting yourself in great danger, and the United States hasn’t been treated right,” Trump said, adding, “I’m not going to call this as a prediction, but in my opinion, the Jewish people would have a lot to do with the loss.”

The former president also said that Jewish people who vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in November should have their “head examined,” a statement he has made repeatedly.

Former federal prosecutor Mimi Rocah, whose father survived the Holocaust, called the comments “dangerous antisemitism,” adding that the former president was “laying the groundwork for a scapegoat.” Newsweek has contacted Trump’s office for comment via email.

Donald Trump in DC
Former President Donald Trump speaking before prominent Jewish donors at an event titled “Fighting Anti-Semitism in America” at the Hyatt Regency Washington on Capitol Hill on September 19. Trump has been condemned for suggesting that…
Former President Donald Trump speaking before prominent Jewish donors at an event titled “Fighting Anti-Semitism in America” at the Hyatt Regency Washington on Capitol Hill on September 19. Trump has been condemned for suggesting that if he lost November’s election, Jewish people would have “a lot to do” with it.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The Trump campaign has made winning over Jewish voters in swing states a key part of its 2024 strategy.

For decades, the demographic has leaned heavily toward Democrats, with a recent Jewish Democratic Council of America poll showing Harris had the support of 72 percent of Jews, compared to 25 percent for Trump.

As with any election, the small margins of victory in battleground states will prove vital. So any backlash to Trump’s remarks, even if they cause him to lose just a few thousand votes, may prove decisive in the 2024 race.

This could prove true especially in Pennsylvania, which has 19 Electoral College votes—the highest up for grabs in all the swing states.

The Jewish population in Pennsylvania is more than 400,000, according to a 2022 census. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump in the Keystone State by 80,000 votes.

As reported by Forward, there are about 300,000 registered Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, amounting to about 3 percent of the electorate.

With two-thirds of the Jewish voters being Democrats, their support is considered essential for a Harris victory.

According to the polling tracker 538, Harris is leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 1.4 points.

How Jewish voters decide to vote in the other swing states could also prove vital in the neck and neck battleground state races.

In Georgia, where Trump lost in 2020 by 11,700 votes, there are about 140,000 Jewish people. In Arizona, where Biden beat Trump by just under 10,500 votes in 2020, there are about 120,000 Jewish people.

Michigan is home to about 119,000 Jews. In 2020, Biden won the state by 154,000 votes.

Michigan also has the largest Arab American population in the country, meaning Harris and Trump will need to strike a fine balance on their views regarding Israel’s conflict in Gaza if they hope to appeal to as broad a demographic as possible.

In North Carolina, where Trump won in 2020 by almost 75,000 votes, there are about 50,000 Jewish people.

Trump’s hopes of appealing to Jews in North Carolina could be hindered by his support of gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson—who, a recent CNN report said, described himself as a “black NAZI” in a pornography website’s message board more than a decade ago.

Robinson, who was previously accused of being a Holocaust denier and pushing antisemitic tropes, has denied the claims.

In Nevada and Wisconsin, the population of Jews is also higher than Biden’s margin of victory in 2020. In Nevada, there are about 80,000 Jewish people, and Biden won the state by 33,000 votes.

There are about 30,000 Jewish people in Wisconsin, where Biden won by 20,000 votes.

While appealing to Jewish voters, Trump has often cited his strong support for Israel.

This includes moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018, meaning that the U.S. officially recognized the holy city as Israel’s capital. Both Israelis and Palestinians consider Jerusalem their first city.

Harris and the Biden administration have said Israel has the “right to defend itself” amid its conflict with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, while also pushing for a cease-fire and a deal to release the hostages taken during the conflict.

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