Hurricane Milton Could be Storm Tampa Has Been Dreading: ‘Our Katrina’

Tampa residents are bracing for Storm Milton as experts and Florida officials warn the potentially “catastrophic” hurricane could be “our Katrina.”

As of a Tuesday morning update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Milton is producing winds of 155 mph, down from 165 mph, and is located about 585 miles southwest of Tampa, which has a population of nearly 400,000. The major storm is expected to make landfall on Wednesday night, with flooding levels in Tampa forecast to be as high as 15 feet if peak surge occurs during high tide.

“Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday,” the NHC said. Hillsborough County, where Tampa is located, has issued mandatory evacuation orders for those living in Zones A and B.

“This is an extremely life-threatening situation & residents should follow advice given by local officials & evacuate immediately if told to do so,” the hurricane center warned.

‘You Will Die’

Authorities and weather experts have warned there will be casualties among those who do not make it out of evacuation zones in time. “This is literally catastrophic, and I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor warned.

Meteorologist Bryan Bennett likened the impending danger to Hurricane Katrina, which hit the Gulf Coast in August 2005 and killed more than 1,300 people.

“This could be our Katrina: I don’t really like comparing the two storms. Katrina was a unique situation with the levy break that lead to the unfortunate loss of so many lives,” he wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “But, from a meteorological standpoint, we always knew that a direct hit to New Orleans would be catastrophic. Similarly, a major hurricane making landfall in Pinellas or Pasco County is a worst case scenario for Tampa Bay.”

He warned anyone in the area not to become complacent after the storm was downgraded to a Category 4 by the NHC. Bennett said the storm surge—the rise in seawater level during a storm—is very likely to remain high despite the storm being downgraded to a Category 4 in the last 24 hours.

“Yes, the storm is expected to weaken slightly as it approaches landfall, but it’s the momentum of the water that concerns me,” he wrote. “Don’t let the forecast of a slight weakening near the coast of Florida mislead into thinking that the surge risk will be greatly diminished.”

“Winds rotate counterclockwise around a hurricane. If the storm makes landfall in Pasco or Pinellas, not only will it significantly flood Clearweater & St. Petersburg, but much of south Tampa, MacDill, & downtown Tampa may go underwater,” he continued. “The water funneled into the Bay could even reverse the Hillsborough River & flood numerous areas that aren’t even by the Bay.”

Meteorologist Noah Bergen warned that Milton is an “astronomical” storm that is “nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere over this ocean water can produce.”

“I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe you the storms small eye and intensity,” he wrote. “897mb pressure with 180 MPH max sustained winds and gusts 200+ MPH. This is now the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded by pressure on this side of the world.”

“It’s just an incredible, incredible, incredible hurricane. It has dropped—it has dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours,” meteorologist John Morales told NBC6 as his voice began to shake. “I apologize. This is just horrific.“

Reports from social media users show that many in Tampa and the surrounding areas are taking the warnings seriously and heeding evacuation orders. “I-4 and I-75 are backed up from people trying to evacuate due to Hurricane Milton,” X user SassaFrassa84 wrote on Tuesday, accompanied by a video showing a long queue of traffic.

Why Is Milton This Strong?

Accuweather has said the storm’s intensity is down to “exceptionally warm waters” off the coast of Florida.

“Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified at extreme levels over exceptionally warm waters that reach hundreds of feet deep in the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Mexico,” AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva said.

“These deep, warm waters of are acting as ‘rocket fuel’ for the storm, supporting its rapid growth. The ocean heat content is at the highest level on record for this time of year in the Gulf, despite the recent passage of Helene.”

Milton will be the second major storm to hit Florida in just two weeks. Hurricane Helene hit the Sunshine State in late September and killed more than 200 people across six states. It was the deadliest named storm to hit the mainland U.S. since Hurricane Katrina.

Do you live in the path of Storm Milton? What preparations have you taken? Have you been able to evacuate safely? Email a.higham@newsweek.com