The 2024 presidential election could soon receive another shake-up, as Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and U.S. Senator JD Vance of Ohio gear up to tangle under the bright lights in front of the nation for their first and only debate on Tuesday.
Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president, and Walz, the Democratic nominee, have been engaged in a war of words since being chosen as respective running mates of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris during the summer.
The October 1 clash of the candidates likely represents the last debate for the presidential tickets before Election Day. Trump has refused to take part in any further debates with Harris following the September 10 matchup that most experts said he lost.
Newsweek asked several political scientists how each vice presidential candidate can benefit from the debate and what their performances could mean for the election.
Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz is pictured on the left, while Republican nominee JD Vance is shown on the right. The candidates will clash during their first and only debate on October 1.
Jim Vondruska;Dia Dipasupil
What’s at Stake
Dan Lamb, senior lecturer at Brooks School of Public Policy at Cornell University, told Newsweek that “Trump’s refusal to debate Harris again could make Tuesday’s debate the most watched and impactful vice-presidential debate in history.”
“Polling shows that voters want to learn more about Harris than Trump, a three-time candidate,” Lamb said. “Curiosity about the relatively new Harris/Walz ticket will bring in viewers … there is more on the line for Harris; she stands to gain or lose more.”
Ashley Moraguez, co-chair and associate professor of political science at the University of North Carolina Asheville, also said that the Vance-Walz meeting could be more important than a typical vice presidential debate due to the likelihood that there will be no further Trump-Harris debates.
“It could raise the stakes, given that this may be the last time either campaign will have a truly national audience for a campaign event,” Moraguez told Newsweek.
But Moraguez added that there was “little systematic evidence that vice-presidential debates matter much in terms of swaying voters,” with impact more typically limited to “reinforcing” the choice of voters who have already made up their minds.
“Given that the polls did not move much after the Harris-Trump debate, I’m skeptical that this debate will make much of a difference in the race either,” she said. “Then again, in a race that is likely going to be decided by slim margins, campaigns have to take opportunities like this seriously and cannot squander them.”
Moraguez went on to say that the debate could benefit either candidate if they are able to promote “popular stances” of their campaigns and manage to stay on point without “getting rattled.” She added that the event might be “a bit more consequential for Senator Vance” due to his historically low favorability ratings.
Christopher Devine, associate professor of political science at the University of Dayton, told Newsweek that the debate will likely garner attention, but unlikely to convince many voters to support either candidate.
“The VP debate is sure to get a lot of attention, but that doesn’t mean it will actually change votes,” Devine said. “Remember, the 2020 VP debate was supposed to be a big deal, but the only thing people remember from it now is that a fly landed on Mike Pence‘s head.”
“It’s not that voters don’t care about what the running mates say, it’s that their vote will come down to what they think of the presidential candidates,” he continued. “The VP candidates—in this debate and throughout the campaign—are influential only to the extent that they tell us something about the person who picked them.”
Devine went on to say that either candidate could damage their ticket to some degree if they “come across as unqualified for the vice presidency, or out of the political mainstream.”
University of Syracuse political science professor Grant Davis Reheer told Newsweek that the debate could represent an opportunity for Vance to “rescue” Trump following his underwhelming debate performance against Harris, or a potential pitfall for the Harris campaign in the event of a Walz “stumble.”
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president, is pictured during a campaign event in Erie, Pennsylvania, on September 5. Walz and GOP counterpart Senator JD Vance will spar on the big stage next week.
Jeff Swensen
Different Goals for Walz and Vance
Most experts agree that voters have different expectations for Walz and Vance, with the Democratic and Republican candidates likely needing to take a different approach to truly benefit from Tuesday’s battle or to be viewed as the debate’s “winner.”
“For Vance, the debate is an opportunity to refurbish his image after a rough debut on the national stage,” University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss told Newsweek. “Likely the debate will not reach enough independent voters to alter Vance’s unfavorables with the public right off the bat, but he might be able to improve his professional reputation with political insiders.”
“Tim Walz needs to maintain his affable public image while avoiding getting pinned down on his more-progressive issue stances,” he continued. “Vance needs to erase the perception that he’s cringe, as young voters would word it.”
Reheer argued that Vance or Walz could come out on top in the debate if they manage to improve on issues that voters may find lacking in Trump or Harris.
“As far as ‘winning’ the debate, Vance can demonstrate logic and discipline, both of which were sorely lacking in Trump’s performance,” Reeher said. “Walz can provide more substance, which was equally lacking in Harris’s performance.”
Reeher went on to say that both candidates would benefit by focusing their debate on economic issues, with Walz in particular having an opportunity to provide voters with more information on the “opportunity economy” proposed by Harris.
“The economy—seen through the lens of personal experience—remains a concern for many voters, and particularly for the voters that each campaign is trying to court,” Reeher said. “The aspects of Harris’s approach on this issue that have been specific, such as the federal assistance for first-time homebuyers, are not likely to quickly or fundamentally change the economy’s performance.”
“Trump is proposing tax cuts and better trade deals, so we’ve seen that movie before and are more familiar with it,” he added. “I’d think voters still want to get a clearer picture of what Harris would try to do regarding the economy.”
Moraguez said that Vance would “likely speak about immigration, the border, and the economy” during the debate, while Walz would “focus on reproductive rights, the campaign’s opportunity economy vision, and their wider messaging on freedom.”
“I expect both candidates will speak to the issues they believe their bases want to hear about and that play well with potential undecided voters,” she said. “I also expect a significant number of attacks from both candidates, which is normal for vice-presidential debates.”
Lamb agreed that the debate would be attack-focused, with Vance in particular likely being “aggressive in attacking Walz’s record to ward off questions about his own controversial statements.”
“The CBS moderators will have their hands full fact-checking and maintaining a coherent dialogue,” Lamb said. “Anyone hoping for a Lincoln-Douglas level of discourse may be disappointed.”
Devine argued that the debate would likely end up as a “draw” overall, due to the bulk of voters viewing the candidates’ performances through a partisan lens.
“It’s hard to really ‘win’ a debate these days because the electorate is so polarized and eager to believe that their party’s candidate got the better of the other side,” Devine said. “This debate will probably be something of a draw, with Republicans believing Vance won and Democrats believing Walz won.”
“Folks in the middle might favor one or the other, but there aren’t enough of them to give either candidate a decisive win if partisans stand by their man,” he added.
Senator JD Vance, the GOP vice presidential nominee, is shown during a campaign event in Leesport, Pennsylvania, on September 21. Vance and Democratic opponent Tim Walz will be hoping to avoid any campaign-damaging pitfalls during their October 1 debate.
Matthew Hatcher
Avoiding a Viral Stumbling Block
Previous presidential and vice presidential debates have included moments that reverberated far beyond their elections. Both presidential debates this year included notable viral moments.
President Joe Biden‘s dire performance against Trump in late June, which featured a confusing segment that saw the incumbent president pledge to “beat Medicare,” led to his withdrawal from the race and endorsement of Harris 3 1/2 weeks later.
Trump’s debate with Harris may be remembered for the former president’s evidence-free assertion that Haitian migrants in Ohio are eating pet cats and dogs, a claim that inspired countless memes and mockery from Trump critics.
Moraguez said that while “there is a chance that a big viral moment could affect the race,” she expects that both vice presidential candidates will have been “coached thoroughly” to avoid making a potentially damaging mistake.
“Both will have prepared sound bites that they’ll squeeze into their responses, since they know most voters will not tune in to the debate itself and will only see clips on the news or on social media,” Moraguez said.
“However, if one of the candidates speaks off the cuff and says something particularly controversial or inflammatory, then it could certainly end up being a vulnerability for the wider campaign,” she added.
Reeher suggested that Vance may attempt to attack the military record of Walz in hopes of creating a viral moment similar to 1988 Democratic vice presidential nominee Lloyd Bentsen’s takedown of GOP nominee Dan Quayle after the Republican compared himself in their debate to former President John F. Kennedy.
“I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy,” Bentsen told Quayle following the comparison, drawing loud cheers from the debate audience.
“You might see Vance try something similar to Lloyd Bentsen regarding military service,” Reeher said. “Something like ‘I was in the Marines, I know what it’s like to carry a weapon of war in an actual war. You have disrespected me and my fellow veterans by your claims about your service.'”
Voss said that while a harmful viral moment may be possible, it is important to “remember that these events rarely do much to move the needle.”
“Even Trump’s disastrous performance in the second debate didn’t have a powerful impact on the presidential race, so it would take something truly remarkable for the vice-presidential debate to be a game changer,” he said.
Lamb predicted that Trump would “declare victory regardless of the outcome, as he did after his disastrous debate with Harris, and distance himself from any Vance misstep.”
