A lack of motivation among likely Democratic voters may hold Kamala Harris back from victory in November, according to a pollster.
Since Harris became the Democratic nominee for president in July, polls have shown that she is in the lead, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker currently indicating that she is 3.2 points ahead, on 47 percent to Trump’s 43.8 percent. She is also leading in five of the seven swing states, according to 538.
Despite her lead, Harris has sought to downplay her position in the polls, characterizing herself as an underdog. “It’s gonna be a tight race until the very end, so let’s not pay too much attention to those polls[…]we are the underdogs in this race,” Harris told the crowd at a Labor Day rally in Pittsburgh.
Cygnal pollster Chris Lane told Newsweek that the Harris campaign may be doing this to guard against complacency among likely Democratic voters in November.
Kamala Harris during a campaign event on September 2, 2024, at Northwestern High School in Detroit, Michigan. A lack of motivation among Democrats may hurt Harris in November, according to a pollster.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
“Kamala Harris at least understands that this race won’t come down to persuasion, but to turnout. The biggest problem for her, as it was with Biden, remains lagging to back her,” Lane said.
“Trump’s voting base from 2020 is much more motivated and likely to turn out, especially as he’s been pushing early voting. Meanwhile, the real persuasion for the Harris campaign comes in the form of convincing her base that they can make the difference in defeating Donald Trump, or likely meet the same fate as Clinton did in 2016. Those same low-propensity voters from 2016 who were told by every poll available that Hillary Clinton was going to win, made them stay home,” he added.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Polls have shown that Harris has built enthusiasm among Democrats, with 71 percent saying they were either very or extremely enthusiastic about voting for her in the upcoming election in a poll by The Economist and YouGov conducted between August 17 and August 20. That is compared to the same poll from between July 13 and July 16, before Biden dropped out, which showed only 43 percent of Democrats were either very or extremely enthusiastic about voting for the incumbent for president in November.
However, the latest poll by The Economist and YouGov, conducted between September 1 and 3, showed Harris has seen a 12 point drop in enthusiasm, with only 59 percent of Democrats saying they were either very or extremely enthusiastic about voting for her. Meanwhile, the enthusiasm levels for Trump remained the same at 61 percent.
Other polls have shown that Republican voters may be more likely to turn out to vote on November 5. A Big Village poll conducted between August 23 and 28 showed 86 percent of Republicans will definitely or probably vote in the presidential election, while 83 percent of Democrats said the same. Meanwhile, 8 percent of Democrats said they probably or definitely will not vote, while 7 percent of Republicans said the same.
However, not all polls have shown a gloomy outlook for Harris. The most recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters, conducted between August 25 and 28, found that enthusiasm among possible Harris voters had surged past enthusiasm among Trump voters, with 68 percent of Harris supporters saying they are “very excited” to vote for her, compared to 60 percent of Trump voters.
Nonetheless, the Harris campaign is still urging supporters not to get too comfortable with recent polling.
“Make no mistake: we head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs,” the vice president’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote in a memo on Sunday. “Donald Trump has a motivated base of support, with more support and higher favorability than he has had at any point since 2020.”
FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker shows Trump’s favorability rating stands at 43 percent. At the same time in 2020, his favorability ratings stood at 41 percent, according to a Gallup poll.
Trump’s campaign team has also been dismissive of polling, pointing out that polls in 2016 predicted a victory for his opponent Hillary Clinton, whom he beat by 2 points.
“Consistently, what you’ve seen in 2016 and 2020 is that the media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict with Republican voters,” GOP vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance told Fox News last month.
“I’m telling you, every single person who’s watching this, the Trump campaign is in a very, very good spot,” Vance added. “We’re going to win this race; we just have to run through the finish line.”
Last month, Trump offered his own theory about why polls did not predict his win in 2016.
“You know, in 2016, I was polling low because people didn’t want to say who they’re voting for. I don’t know if that’s supposed to be a good thing or a bad thing, but it is what it is. And we did very well in 2016,” he told reporters during a press conference at his Bedminster golf club in New Jersey.
