A new poll of Minnesota voters found that former President Donald Trump may be winning back support from some women, while Vice President Kamala Harris has won over some male voters.
Democrats are on a decades-long winning streak in Minnesota, having carried the state in every presidential race since 1972, but Republicans expressed optimism about expanding the battleground into the state over the summer as polls suggested Trump was well-positioned to beat President Joe Biden in November.
But fortunes flipped for Democrats after Biden, facing cratering poll numbers and concerns about his age, withdrew from the race in July. Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee and has generated record-breaking fundraising and turned around a dire polling situation, as recent surveys now paint the race as a toss-up.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks in Atlanta on September 20. A new Minnesota poll found that former President Donald Trump’s numbers have improved with women, and Harris’ numbers have improved with men, in the state.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
A new Minnesota poll released on Monday showed that Harris expanded on Biden’s lead in the state. The survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy and sponsored by the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News and Minneapolis news station KARE. It surveyed 800 likely voters from September 16 to 18.
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The poll found Harris leading Trump by 5 percentage points (48 percent to 43 percent). In June, Biden held a 4-point lead in the state (45 percent to 41 percent).
It also found some shifts for each candidate since June, when Harris had a 37-point lead among women (62 percent to 25 percent). She now has a 25-point lead (59 percent to 35 percent).
However, she made up for those losses by making gains among male voters, though Trump still leads that group. In June, he held a 22-point lead (58 percent to 36 percent), compared to a 16-point lead in September (53 percent to 37 percent).
“This November, Minnesotans will rally behind President Trump after living under the failed leadership of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz for the past four years,” GOP spokesperson Liz Huston said in a statement to Newsweek. “Minnesota families are being devastated by Democrat-induced inflation, open borders and a surge in crime across the state.”
Newsweek reached out to Harris’ campaign for comment via email.
Gender polarization has become a more prevalent political phenomenon in recent elections, and polling more broadly has shown Harris performing well among women.
Minnesota isn’t viewed as particularly competitive this year. Harris’ polling across the country has strengthened since she replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, and Walz, the Minnesota governor, becoming her running mate may also help her in the state.
Democrats are hoping Walz may bolster Harris’ appeal in other Midwestern and Rust Belt battlegrounds like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In 2020, Minnesota backed Biden by 7 points, giving him 52 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45 percent.
But Trump came close to flipping it in 2016. His 44.9 percent of the vote was just shy of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton‘s 46.4 percent. It was the closest a Republican came to flipping the state since 1984, when Democrats carried the state by only 0.2 percentage points in Walter Mondale’s loss to Ronald Reagan.
Minnesota is a must-win state for Harris. If Trump were to manage to flip it, Harris’ path to 270 Electoral College votes would become more complicated, as she would have to win multiple Sun Belt states, where polls have been more favorable to Trump.
Other polls have similarly found Harris leading in Minnesota. A Morning Consult poll, conducted among 517 likely voters from September 9 to 18, found Harris leading by 7 points (50 percent to 43 percent).
A Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph poll also found her with a 7-point lead over Trump (51 percent to 44 percent).
