Kamala Harris’ strong performance in the ABC debate against Donald Trump has seen her increase her average poll lead in the 2024 presidential election campaign.
Numerous surveys conducted in the wake of the September 10 debate—possibly the only one to take place between Harris and Trump ahead of the November 5 election day—suggest the Democrat came out on top.
Despite Harris being considered by many to have won the debate, the ABC event will arguably best be remembered for what Trump said about migrants eating people’s cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio, claims which have been debunked.
Trump’s and Harris’ teams have been contacted for comment via email.
Multiple national polls show that Harris is maintaining or improving her slight lead over Trump. According to the national live average poll tracker from 538, Harris was ahead of Trump by 2.5 points on the day of the ABC debate. As of September 19, Harris now leads her Republican rival by 2.8 points (48.3 percent to 45.5).
Real Clear Politics gave Harris a 1.1-point lead over Trump on September 10, which has since increased to 2 points (49.4 percent to 47.4) as of September 18.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris during the presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. Harris’ national poll numbers have largely improved since the debate.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
A September 12 Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,405 registered voters showed Harris leading Trump by 47 percent to 42, a marginal increase from the 4-point lead she had in an August survey. More than half (53 percent) of voters surveyed said Harris won the debate, with less than a quarter (24 percent) believing Trump won. The results had a margin of error of around 3 percentage points.
A September 13 survey of 2,500 U.S. adults from Redfield & Wilton Strategies showed Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump (44 percent to 42), although this lead was unchanged from a previous poll conducted two weeks prior to the ABC debate.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll of 3,276 adults published September 15 also showed that the debate did not change much, albeit with Harris still in the lead. The poll showed her with a 5-point lead over Trump among all adults (51 percent to 46), 5 points ahead among registered voters (51 percent to 47) and 6 points ahead among likely voters (52 percent to 46). Each result is within 1 percentage point of a pre-debate ABC/Ipsos poll. The results have a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
However, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll of 1,755 U.S. adults showed that Harris had dramatically increased her lead over Trump to 5 points (50 percent to 45) among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup. Harris was ahead by a 4-point margin (48 percent to 44) when third-party candidates were included and when only likely voters were surveyed (49 percent to 45). The margin of error was approximately 2.9 percent.
Harris and Trump were tied on 46 percent in a July Yahoo News/YouGov poll, with Harris nudging marginally ahead (47 percent to 46) in August.
A larger Morning Consult survey conducted September 13-15 among 11,022 likely voters also showed Harris’ polling numbers had improved post-debate. The survey gave Harris a 6-point lead over Trump (51 percent to 45), up from a 3-point advantage she held in a poll conducted the week prior to the debate. The results have a margin of error of 1 percentage point.
A YouGov/The Economist poll conducted September 15-17 found that Harris was 4 points ahead of Trump (49 percent to 45). YouGov said this was the largest lead any presidential candidate registered in a weekly YouGov/The Economist poll in almost a year, since President Joe Biden led Trump 45 percent to 40 in a September 23-26, 2023, survey.
A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between September 11-16 found that more than two-thirds of likely voters (67 percent) said Harris performed well in the debate, compared to 40 percent who thought the same of Trump. The pair were tied on 47 percent in their national poll, with Harris managing to eradicate the 2-point lead Trump held in a pre-debate New York Times/Siena College survey. The national poll of 2,437 voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
