Kari Lake, the Republican Senate hopeful in Arizona and a prominent ally of Donald Trump is trailing behind her Democratic rival, according to a new poll.
The Morning Consult poll conducted between August 30 and September 8 shows that Lake is 8 points behind her opponent, Representative Ruben Gallego, among 901 likely voters, on 41 percent to his 49 percent.
Other recent polls have shown that Gallego, who represents Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, is leading Lake by double digits. A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll from August 28 showed the Democrat 15 points ahead of his opponent.
It was the second August poll that showed Gallego with a lead in the double digits, after a HighGround poll from August 5 showed him with an 11-point lead over Lake.
During an interview on talk radio station KTAR, Lake dismissed the polls, saying that “nobody wins by 15 points.”
“I put zero stock in these polls,” Lake said. “The ones you’ve mentioned, the public polls, have just been absolute garbage. I mean, it’s absolutely insane. 15 points, are you kidding? I mean, nobody wins by 15 points, OK?”
She added that it was “a testament to the strength of our campaign” that her own polls showed the race “tied.”
Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake speaks in Glendale, Arizona, on August 23. Lake is trailing her Democratic rival, Ruben Gallego, in the polls.
Rebecca Noble/Getty Images
A July J.L. Partners poll paid for by Lake’s campaign showed she had a one-point lead over Gallego, while a Republican-funded poll by the Remington Research Group, also from July, showed the two candidates were tied.
The J.L. Partners poll is the only survey conducted since March that has put Lake ahead.
Other polls have shown Gallego with a smaller lead of between 1 and 7 points.
Newsweek reached out to Lake and Gallego’s campaigns for comment via email.
Lake shot to national prominence as a figure in former president Donald Trump‘s MAGA movement after stepping down as a news anchor to run for Arizona governor in 2021. Her campaign focused on securing the United States-Mexico border, protecting gun rights, and protesting COVID-19 lockdowns, “cancel culture,” and “woke” school curriculums.
She and Gallego are competing for the seat in Arizona’s 3rd District after incumbent Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party to become an independent in December 2023.
Throughout her campaign, Lake has sought to downplay Gallego’s lead in the polls. She previously told KTAR that any support for Gallego was due to his campaign spending large amounts of money on advertisements meant to obscure his supposed history as “a radical.”
“Ruben has poured in tens of millions; I just recently heard $44 million in ads trying to paint him as a moderate,” said Lake. “Well, we know he’s a radical. And I’ve endured tens of millions of dollars in attack ads, and his numbers have not moved.”
“We’ve found out in some polling that when people find out just a little bit about his voting record, he drops 3 points,” she added. “So, our polling shows that it’s a tied race…you know, it’s a dead heat race.”
Meanwhile, in a press release, a spokesperson for Lake’s campaign said there is “enthusiasm” for her candidacy.
“Any poll showing a large lead for either candidate is plainly out of step with Arizona’s electoral history and the current political landscape,” the campaign said. “High quality polling confirms what we’re seeing on the ground—enthusiasm for Kari Lake‘s campaign continues to grow as we approach Election Day.”
In Arizona’s 3rd District, voters had opted for a Republican candidate in every election since 1986. However, that changed in 2022 when a Democrat won the seat.
In the same year, Lake lost the Arizona gubernatorial election to Democrat Katie Hobbs by a slim 49.7 percent to 50.3 percent margin. Like Trump, she claimed that the contest had been “rigged” after losing and launched a series of failed legal challenges attempting to reverse the outcome.
In 2023, she lost the legal challenge, with her attorneys sanctioned $2,000 for making “false factual statements.”
Arizona has fluctuated in the gubernatorial race, choosing a Democrat in 2022, Republican governors in the three elections before that and Democrats in the two preceding elections. Between 1986 and 1998, only Republican governors were elected in the state.
Meanwhile, Arizona is also a battleground state in the presidential election, with Trump currently 0.6 points ahead, 46.3 points, and Harris at 45.7 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Harris had been ahead in the state for almost a month, but Trump retook the lead on September 4.
Voters in Arizona had selected a Republican nominee for president in every election other than 2020 and 1996 when Democrats were elected.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Trump is projected to win in the state.
