Representative Lauren Boebert is favored to win a new Colorado district seat in the upcoming election, according to The Economist’s polling model.
Boebert, who currently represents Colorado’s 3rd District, announced in December that she is running for Representative Ken Buck’s soon-to-be-vacant 4th District seat. Her new eastern district is the most Republican in the state, with a 2023 Cook Partisan Voting Index rating it R+13, compared to the 3rd District’s R+7 rating.
Boebert is a staunch supporter of Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, and has been endorsed by the former president, who in March called her a “trusted America First fighter.”
The Economist’s latest prediction model of the race between Boebert and Democratic challenger Trisha Calvarese shows Boebert winning in a landslide. The model, which includes updated polling data, voting history in the district, candidate fundraising and national polling, ran 10,001 simulations of the election. As of Wednesday, the model found Boebert with a +23 percent vote margin, “a better than 19 in 20 chance” of securing the seat.
Representative Lauren Boebert speaks with reporters as she leaves the U.S. Capitol on May 17 in Washington, D.C. The Economist prediction model favors Boebert in the upcoming election for Colorado’s 4th District.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Newsweek has reached out to the Boebert and Calvarese campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday.
House races typically have fewer polls, especially in less competitive districts. However, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight and The Hill also show strong, unwavering support for Boebert in the upcoming election. There haven’t been any reported polls since Boebert won the primary in June.
Although prediction models favor Boebert, Calvarese has made significant ground fundraising, bringing in about $3.18 million since the start of the race, including $2.6 million this quarter, according to Colorado Public Radio.
OpenSecrets shows Calvarese with more cash on hand with more than $1.3 million to Boebert’s $529,700. However, Boebert’s report is based on data as of June 30, while Calvarese’s reflects figures through September 30.
On Friday, Boebert spoke at Trump’s rally in Aurora, Colorado, which is in the state’s 6th District.
Boebert asked rally attendees if they are ready for Trump to return to the White House in January 2025 and “look the swamp creatures in the eyes and say, ‘As I was saying…'” In 2020, Boebert joined 146 other representatives in voting to overturn the election results. President Joe Biden won the 2020 election, and there is no evidence of widespread voter fraud as Trump and his allies have claimed.
In December 2020, Boebert posted on social media: “Objecting to the counting of certain electoral votes is NOT ‘overthrowing’ the results of the election if those votes were won through fraud.”
