Yesterday was a great day with these MLB home run predictions, getting two of our guys to mash (thanks to Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker).
We are seeing more and more teams clinch a playoff berth, either by winning the division or via wild-card, so as the regular season ramps down, here are our favorite MLB home run picks for today, Sept. 25.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+280) FanDuel
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
Ohtani was one of the batters we went with yesterday who did not come through for us, but with how good he has been recently, he deserves to be forgiven, and he’ll get a chance to redeem himself tonight.
Despite not going yard last night, he did have the hardest hit of the game, smoking a double that was 110.4 mph off the bat. He just did not quite get under it enough for the ball to leave the park, but that hit shows he is still seeing the ball well.
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A lot of this was detailed yesterday, but for those who missed it, Ohtani has hit the most home runs in MLB since the All-Star Break. He has hit 24 in that span, with Aaron Judge the closest to him with 22 homers.
This four-month-long hot streak has continued for the past seven days as well, with Ohtani boasting the most home runs hit in the last week (5). He also has the most balls launched (100+ mph off the bat, 20-40 degree launch angle) with seven, and the second-most HardHit line-drive + fly-balls (10) in this same stretch.
As he did yesterday, he does have a tough matchup today against a good pitcher in Dylan Cease of the Padres, but Ohtani has taken Cease yard before, back in June of last year.
Ohtani also had a tough matchup yesterday against Michael King, and while he did not go yard, he did hit that double referenced earlier that was 110.4 mph off the bat, so he came close.
Ohtani goes yard today.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+280): 0.75 Units
Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+360) BetMGM
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. ET
Schwarber went on a minor slump over the past week or so, which came after taking a couple days to rest an elbow contusion. It makes sense that it might take him some time to get right if he has a bum elbow, but the good news is that seems to be in the past.
He has hit a home run in each of the past two games, and we all know the type of binge that Schwarber can get on when he is right.
We have already seen two difference instances of this in September alone with Schwarber. He had a stretch from Sept. 3-10 when he hit a total of seven home runs, and now he has homered in three of his last four games.
He has been red-hot, and we like for that to continue tonight. This is another situation where the pitching matchup is not quite as juicy as we would normally like, with Javier Assad on the mound for the Cubs.
He has only given up one home run to left-handed hitters in the last two months, but that appears more luck-based than anything.
In this same stretch of games, he has allowed a HardHit rate of 43.68, a line-drive rate of 26.19%, and his overall SIERA (which measures the quality of the batted balls allowed, along with strikeout rate) is 4.64 against LHH, which would be the fourth-worst SIERA in MLB.
According to FanGraphs stuff+, which measures a pitcher’s “stuff” based on velocity, spin rate and movement, 99% of Assad’s pitch-mix is considered below-average.
Look for Schwarber to stay hot tonight.
Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+360): 0.60 Units
Charlie Blackmon Home Run (+630) FanDuel
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Admittedly, part of this play on Blackmon is based on the emotion of him retiring at the end of this season, which is four days away. Blackmon is a beloved figure for the Rockies and a fan favorite who has been in Colorado since 2011.
He recently announced that he is retiring at the end of this season, and it is going to be an emotional farewell.
The good news, however, is that he has used this emotion to hit the absolute tar out of the baseball. He has a combined eight HardHits in his last four games alone, including three rockets yesterday.
Here are the results from his HardHits in the last couple games (while keeping in mind the Rockies had Monday off as a travel day):
- 97.9 mph, 393-foot flyout (9/24)
- 99.5 mph, 335-foot double (9/24)
- 106.2 mph, 351-foot triple (9/24)
- 101.2 mph flyout (9/22)
- 101.2 mph, 348-foot home run (9/21)
- 101.5 mph, 386-foot double (9/21)
- 95.9 mph, 371-foot flyout (9/20)
- 105.1 mph, 420-foot home run (9/20)
So, despite not going yard yesterday, he hit three absolute missiles that just could not quite leave the stadium.
The hope here is that he stays hot and leaves the fans with a memorable exit in his last days in a Rockies uniform.
Charlie Blackmon Home Run (+630): 0.50 Units
Honorable Mention: Garrett Mitchell Home Run (+900) Caesars
If you made it this far, you deserve an honorable mention of a +900 longshot in Garrett Mitchell, who has a great opportunity to go yard even with the long odds.
The play on Mitchell is a fade of the pitcher he is going up against, which is Luis L. Ortiz of the Pirates.
Ortiz has, to put it bluntly, gotten smoked by lefties in the last two months. He has a HR/9 of 2.60 in this stretch against LHH, with a 9.40% barrel rate and 44.90% HardHit rate allowed.
Mitchell, meanwhile, is the only LHH on the Brewers who has hit a home run off a righty in the last month, and he has six of them. He has been great, and he is absolutely worth a sprinkle at the juicy +900 odds.
Garrett Mitchell Home Run (+900): 0.25 Units
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