As always, Sundays in the MLB mean a bunch of day games, with today being no different. There are games starting as early as 12 p.m. ET.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the best MLB home run picks for today. We are looking stay how after we got one yesterday thanks to Shohei Ohtani.
Matt Olson Home Run (+285) FanDuel
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 7:10 p.m. ET
While Olson was on the list yesterday and he did not come through, he did hit a 408-foot flyout that would have been a home run in 16 stadiums. That baseball was absolutely crushed, at 102.1 mph off the bat and a 30 degree launch angle.
This continues a stretch over the past week for Olson in which he has been hitting the cover off the baseball. He leads MLB with 13 HardHit line-drive + fly-balls over the past seven days as the only batter with that many. Ohtani has 12, and every other batter in the league has 11 or fewer in that stretch. Olson is also tied with the second-most balls launched (100-plus mph off the bat and 20-40 degree launch angle), with six total.
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The red-hot Olson now gets a pitching matchup that he has dominated in the past against Aaron Nola of the Phillies. These two have seen a lot of each other over the past three years as division rivals, and they’ve also met in two playoff series, and Olson has had success against him.
Olson has two home runs off Nola in 33 at-bats over the past three years. That includes a home run off Nola earlier this season that was 102.7 mph off the bat.
Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+310) FanDuel
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros, 2:10 p.m. ET
Speaking of a batter who has been hitting the cover off the baseball, that would also apply to Alvarez. He had an absurd three-home run game earlier this week, and even though he has not hit one yard in his last three games, he has still been hitting the ball hard.
In the last week, Alvarez has nine HardHit line-drive + fly-balls, which is tied for the fourth-most in MLB. The thing is, all nine of them have come against right-handed pitching, which is what he will be facing tonight in Alec Marsh of the Royals.
Marsh is not a pitcher who you would typically target for a home run prop, but he is nothing to be scared of either. He throws a 4-seam fastball almost 50% of the time, and Alvarez has been destroying 4-seamers recently. Here are how the last five 4-seam FBs have gone for Alvarez:
- 101 mph lineout, 316 feet
- 98.5 mph off the bat
- 109.4 mph, 408-foot home run
- 96.7 mph off the bat
- 106.6 mph, 388-foot flyout
For those counting at home, all five of those were HardHits, including three that were 100-plus mph off the bat, for one home run and one 388-foot flyout. He takes Marsh yard today.
Masyn Winn Home Run (+600) BetMGM
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees, 1:35 p.m. ET
This one is a deeper cut at +600 odds, but a play that has a lot of value and is absolutely worth a sprinkle at this price. Winn is going up against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees, and Cortes, unlike Marsh, is absolutely a pitcher you want to target for batter props.
He has allowed 22 home runs on the year, including 20 to right-handed hitters, with a HR/9 of 1.48 against RHH, up from 0.53 against LHH. The issue with Cortes is he allows batters to hit the ball hard and put the ball in the air, which is a bad combination (or good for our purposes) when it comes to allowing home runs.
He allows the highest launch angle in MLB (22.9 degrees), along with the fifth-highest HardHit rate (43%), the 14th-fastest average exit velocity (89.6 mph) and the 21st-highest barrel rate (8.6%). That is a terrible combination, and he has been even worse over his last 10 starts, with a 23.9-degree launch angle and 11.6% barrel rate.
Winn, meanwhile, has quietly been hitting the ball well recently. In the last month against LHP, he has hit a total of three home runs with a 13% barrel rate and 55.50% HardHit rate. He has done most of his damage off of 4-seam fastballs, which Cortes throws roughly 40% of the time.
In the last month, two of the three home runs that Winn hit came off 4-seamers, with a 20% barrel rate and 62.50% HardHit rate. Next up, Cortes throws a cutter 29% of the time, and Winn has put the only cutter he has seen from a lefty in the past month into the seats with a 407-foot homer.
Honorable mention: Dylan Crews (+630) FanDuel
If you made it this far, you deserve another longshot home run bet to sprinkle on, this time in Nationals rookie phenom Dylan Crews.
He’s facing a lefty tonight who mostly throws 4-seam fastballs, and Crews has hit lefties hard in general, and 4-seamers even harder.
He’s another great value pick here.
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