Yesterday was admittedly not our day with these MLB home run player props, as we did not get any to go over the fence. With that said, today features a full MLB betting slate, which means we have ample opportunities to get one to mash today.
Let’s get right into it.
Rafael Devers Home Run (+320) FanDuel
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET
Devers has crushed right-handed pitching recently, and now he has a dream matchup against a righty who really struggles against left-handed hitters. On the season, Devers has a 12% barrel rate, 56% HardHit rate and .360 ISO rate against RHP. All of those are elite numbers, and that ISO rate is the third-best against righties in all of MLB.
This all makes sense, as 23 of the 27 home runs that Devers has hit have come against righties. He is going up against Ronel Blanco of the Astros, who as mentioned previously struggles against lefties.
Twelve of the 19 home runs that Blanco has allowed have come against LHH, even though he has seen fewer at-bats against lefties. His HR/9 against LHH is 1.58, up from 0.96 against RHH. His fly-ball rate allowed goes from 39.3% to 47% and his HardHit rate allowed increases from 28.7% to 36% going from RHH to LHH.
Blanco also throws 4-seam fastballs as his most frequent pitch (41% of the time), and Devers absolutely smashes 4-seamers. On the season, Devers has a 15.63% barrel rate, 69% HardHit rate and .516 ISO rate against 4-seam fastballs from right-handed pitching.
Over the past month, he has continued to hit fastballs hard, with a 15.38% barrel rate, 71.43% HardHit rate and .538 ISO rate off 4-seam fastballs from RHP.
Blanco throws a changeup 31.47% of the time, and while Devers does not hit for as much power against changeups, he still hits the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of 94.6 mph on the season against changeups from RHP.
Corey Seager Home Run (+340) FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
While Seager did just hit two home runs yesterday, which might scare some people off, he has such a good matchup today that we feel comfortable continuing to back him. He is going up against Mitch Keller of the Pirates, who is absolutely a pitcher that you want to target with left-handed hitters such as Seager.
Keller has allowed 17 home runs on the year, including 13 against lefties in roughly the same amount of at-bats. His HR/9 against LHH is 1.62, up from 0.52 against RHP.
Keller is a righty, and Seager has crushed right-handed pitching recently. He has hit eight home runs in the past four weeks against righties, with a 15% barrel rate and 50% HardHit rate.
From there, Keller throws a 4-seam fastball as his most frequent pitch, 36% of the time against lefties, and Seager has annihilated fastballs recently. Over the past month, he has hit four home runs off 4-seam fastballs from right-handed pitching, with a 25% barrel rate, 73% HardHit rate and 55% fly-ball rate.
After that, Keller throws a curveball (20%), sinker (13%) and cutter (12%) which account for over 80% of the pitches that Seager will see, and Seager also has great numbers against these pitches. Over the past four weeks against these three pitches from RHP, Seager has hit three home runs with a 21% barrel rate and 66.67% HardHit rate.
Brent Rooker Home Run (+400) FanDuel
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET
While Rooker has cooled down since he went on a ridiculous home run binge about a month ago, he has an excellent matchup to mash one today and he has still been hitting the ball well.
Yesterday, he had two HardHits and a barrel on the ball, but he just could not get one to go out of the ballpark. He also had two hits, and has quietly had two hits in four of his last five games.
Shane Baz is pitching for the Rays, who has not been horrible at allowing home runs. But based on his advanced stats, a lot of that is due to luck more than anything. He allows a HardHit rate of 47.3% (worst in MLB), average exit velocity of 92.2 mph (worst in MLB) and a launch angle of 17.1 degrees (14th-worst in MLB).
So, his low HR/9 makes it seem as though he is due for some negative regression in the home run department, especially against a batter in Rooker who is due for some positive regression with home runs.
The individual matchup should favor Rooker as well. Baz throws a 4-seam fastball 45% of the time and a slider 37% of the time, and Rooker has great stats against both of these pitches. He has hit sliders from righties hard all year, with an 18.64% barrel rate, 56% HardHit rate and .424 ISO rate.
Rooker stats on the season against 4-seam fastballs are not as good, but he has hit them hard recently. Over the past month, he has hit two home runs off 4-seamers from RHP, with a 16.67% barrel rate, 66.67% HardHit rate and .389 ISO rate. He goes yard today.
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