Nate Silver Says Poll ‘Confirms’ Shift in Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Race

Polling analyst Nate Silver has said that a new poll confirms a shift in momentum from Vice President Kamala Harris to former President Donald Trump in the presidential race

In a Sunday post on his blog Silver Bulletin, Silver analyzed the implications of a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, which had Trump overtaking Harris nationally, leading her by 48 points to 47.

“One of the best pollsters in the country has bad news for Kamala Harris,” Silver wrote. “It confirms the model’s view that there’s been some sort of a shift in momentum in the race.” According to Silver’s polling aggregate model, Harris now leads Trump 48.7 percent to 46.2 percent, a slight drop from her 49.2 percent to 45.7 percent margin just a week earlier.

The perceived slowing in momentum follows a surge in enthusiasm and a significant boost in the polls since President Joe Biden made the decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race on July 21, endorsing Harris to replace him at the top of the ticket.

However, the race has remained close, with most polls showing Harris or Trump only narrowly ahead within the margin of error or tied.

Silver noted that while it’s just one poll, it comes from a highly rated pollster and with a substantial sample size, making it difficult to ignore. “It’s a real lesson here in the dangers of poll cherry-picking,” he said, addressing criticism from Democratic partisans upset with certain poll exclusions in his model.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight, the polling aggregator that Silver founded but left last year, shows Harris holding a narrower 47.1 percent to 44.3 percent lead over Trump nationally, unchanged for Harris but showing Trump gaining half a point in the last week.

Silver also emphasized that a lot could still change and noted that the momentum shift could benefit Harris in her first debate against Trump tomorrow in Pittsburgh.

“Debates are often judged relative to expectations,” Silver said, suggesting that if the race is perceived as closer than before, Harris’s performance may be viewed more favorably.

Silver, however, cautioned that Harris faces ongoing challenges, particularly regarding her past progressive positions on immigration and health care, which have become central talking points for the Trump campaign.

The Times’ poll found that 44 percent of voters said Harris is too progressive, while only 32 percent found Trump too conservative.

Silver said that Trump is not a centerist candidate. “Trump tried to repeal Obamacare, and he appointed three highly conservative Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade,” Silver wrote. “Looked at on the whole, his issue positions are highly conservative and in some cases radical.”

In Silver’s updated election model, Harris remains the favorite, but the gap has narrowed. Silver’s model still gives her a slight edge in key swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, though he notes that if trends like those in the Times poll continue, Trump could turn the race into a true toss-up.

Newsweek reached out to the campaign of Trump and Harris for comment.