There have been some major upsets in this early college football season. Of course, three of those major upsets have involved Florida State, who has had a nightmarish start.
That is not the only example, though, as we also saw National Championship runner-up Washington lose to in-state rival Washington State last week.
That is the beauty of college football, in that there can be some shocking results each and every week. So, with that thought in mind, here are our top upset predictions for NCAAF Week 4.
Georgia Tech +10.5 (-110) DraftKings
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Louisville Cardinals, 3:30 p.m. ET
While Louisville took down Georgia Tech last year, we like GT to at least cover the spread in this matchup, with a small chance of winning outright as well.
Of course, the Yellow Jackets are no strangers to these major upsets, as they got the season started with a victory over Florida State in Week 0.
Sure, that victory over FSU does not look quite as impressive now as it did at the time, but Georgia Tech is still not a team that should be taken lightly. It is also hard to really know what we have in this Louisville team, as they have not played anybody of note yet.
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They blew out an FCS team in Week 1 in Austin Peay, then did the same thing to a G5 team in Jacksonville State in Week 2, and had an early-season bye in Week 3. So, it is hard to know what to really make of the Cardinals, while at least Georgia Tech has played some real teams.
Of course, it has not been only smooth sailing for Georgia Tech, which lost a close game to Syracuse in Week 2, but is 3-1 on the year. Along with the Yellow Jackets’ victory over Florida State, they had two easy, blowout wins against smaller competition in Georgia State (Week 1) and Virginia Military (Week 3).
The Yellow Jackets have some talent, especially on offense. They are led by outstanding QB Haynes King, who passed for 313 yards in Georgia Tech’s loss to Louisville last year, and has recorded a 6-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio to start the year.
His top weapon has been WR Malik Rutherford, who has 17 receptions and 285 yards in the last three games. Overall, Georgia Tech has scored at least 28 points in three straight games.
Defensively is where Georgia Tech might struggle, especially against a high-powered Louisville offense. At QB, the Cardinals are led by Tyler Shough, who transferred over from Texas Tech.
The competition has been light, but Louisville has scored 62 and 49 points in their only two games on the year. So, some rust should be expected in their first game against real competition, and Georgia Tech should not be taken lightly.
- Georgia Tech +10.5 (-110): 1 Unit
- Georgia Tech ML (+320) ESPNBet: 0.25 Units
SMU Moneyline (+130) BetMGM
TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs, 5 p.m. ET
We went with a road team with our first pick, but the real money maker when betting underdogs in college football is to look for short underdogs playing at home, which we found in SMU.
Both teams are coming off losses (TCU last week, and SMU two weeks ago, followed by a bye last week), but SMU is the play in this rivalry matchup. TCU’s loss last week was especially brutal, as they blew a large lead against UCF and lost 35-34 as 2.5-point favorites.
The SMU loss in Week 2 was not much better, as they lost 18-15 to BYU as 12.5-point favorites, but they are making a QB change which should jump-start their offense.
SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee announced that Kevin Jennings would be the starting QB moving forward, moving on from Preston Stone after Stone could not produce a single offensive touchdown in the loss to BYU.
They have now had two weeks to prepare for this moment, so the guess here is that their offense is going to look much better moving forward than it did against BYU.
Luckily, SMU has a plus matchup against a TCU defense that has really struggled. Last week, the Horned Frogs allowed 519 total yards of offense to UCF, and, after leading 31-13 with 5:03 left in the third quarter, they were outscored 22-3 the rest of the way.
The SMU defense will admittedly have its hands full with the TCU offense, which is currently fifth in the FBS in passing offense. They are led by QB Josh Hoover, who was electric in the loss to UCF with over 400 passing yards and four touchdowns.
However, the SMU defense has been great this season, especially its pass defense, which has held opponents to only 158.3 passing yards per game. So, the guess here is that SMU is going to be able to slow down the high-flying TCU offense, while the Mustangs offense bounces back with the QB change.
SMU ML (+130): 1 Unit
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