This NFL season has been unique in the amount of heavy underdogs that have not just covered, but won straight up.
This continued last week when the Cardinals, as an underdog of more than a touchdown, beat the 49ers. The Giants accomplished this as well, defeating Seattle as 6.5-point underdogs.
Overall, NFL underdogs of 5.5 or more points are 19-4-1 against the spread through five weeks, including 13 outright victories. Here is how the biggest underdogs have performed each week, according to sports betting analyst Ben Fawkes:
- Week 1: 3-1 ATS
- Week 2: 6-0 ATS
- Week 3: 5-1 ATS
- Week 4: 3-2-1 ATS
With that in mind, here are our favorite underdog predictions for the NFL Week 6 slate.
Commanders +6.5 (-105) ESPN BET
Washington Commanders vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET
It is hard to come to terms with the reality that the Commanders might have the best offense in the NFL. They should not be underdogs by a touchdown against anybody in today’s NFL.
Rookie QB Jaylen Daniels has been a revelation for this team, which has proven over the course of five weeks that it can score on anybody.
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According to DVOA, the Commanders have the fourth-best offense in the NFL, with the fourth-best passing and rushing offense.
While yes, they have faced the sixth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses, according to DVOA, they have not only performed well, but dominated. They also have the best offensive EPA (expected points added) in the league (No. 1 in passing EPA; No. 2 in rushing EPA).
After scoring 20 and 21 points in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively, they have exploded the past three weeks, with 38 points against the Bengals, 42 against the Cardinals and 34 against the Browns.
The Ravens are a tough test, without a doubt, but this Baltimore defense has been leaky this year, giving us more confidence that, at the very least, the Commanders should be able to keep up.
The Ravens have allowed the most passing yards per game in the NFL, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 304 yards per game.
So, the guess here is that this is going to be a high-scoring affair (the over could be a look, too), with the Commanders able to keep this within a touchdown.
Commanders +6.5 (-105): 1 Unit
Giants +3.5 (-115) BetMGM
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants, 8:20 p.m. ET
Until we see this Bengals team show that it is capable of getting stops, it is close to an auto-fade each week — especially going up against a Giants team that is still undervalued.
After an inept offensive performance in Week 1, the Giants have quietly put together a nice stretch of games on offense over the past month. Their point totals do not quite reflect that, as they have had red zone issues, but they have been able to move the ball up and down the field.
They play at a slow pace (they average 28.4 seconds per snap, ninth-most in NFL), with the ninth-slowest adjusted pace as well. Due to this, the Giants have the third-highest time of possession in the NFL.
This was evident last Sunday in New York’s victory over the Seahawks, when it held the ball for over 37 minutes.
Getting stops has been an issue for this Bengals defense. Cincinnati has the third-worst defensive EPA and 22nd-ranked defensive DVOA, and it has allowed at least 24 points in each of its last four games.
The Bengals gave up 38 points in a loss to the Commanders in which they did not force a single punt, and they allowed 41 points in a loss to the Ravens last week.
The Bengals offense has been great, but it has not helped translate to victories, as the defense has been incapable of getting stops.
This has the makings of a game where the Giants hold the ball for the majority of the night thanks to their ability to keep long drives going, keeping the Bengals offense off the field.
Giants +3.5 (-115): 1 Unit
Jets Moneyline (+120) Bet365
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets, Monday, Oct. 14, 8:15 p.m. ET
This play here is a tried and true NFL betting strategy, which is betting on a team the week after it fires its head coach.
According to Sportico, there have been 37 occasions since 2000 where a team’s head coach has either resigned or been fired during the regular season. Prior to the coach leaving, those teams had a win percentage of 27 percent. In the first game after the firing, those teams won 43 percent of those games.
That number does not seem incredible, but a 16 percent increase in win rate is much more meaningful.
Along with this being a system play, fading the Bills is also a good proposition given how they have performed the last couple weeks.
They were riding high after a 3-0 start, but have now lost two straight in ugly fashion. They got blown out by Ravens two weeks ago, 35-10, and last Sunday’s loss to the Texans was not as close as the final score might lead you to believe.
The Bills were out-gained 425 yards to 276, and Josh Allen was 9-for-30 passing. Late turnovers from the Texans made that game closer than it should have been, but the Bills were thoroughly outplayed.
The Jets are a team that we are still not high on for the rest of the season, but for one week, they have the right situation to upset the Bills.
Jets moneyline (+120): 1 Unit
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