NFL Week 4 is upon us, which means it’s time once again for our weekly NFL best ATS bets.
We started the season strong, going 4-1 in Week 1.
The results since have not been great:
But we’re hoping to get back on the right track in Week 4 now that we know more about which teams we can trust.
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Here’s what we like for Week 4 — and why — in Steelers vs. Colts, Broncos vs. Jets, Browns vs. Raiders, Patriots vs. 49ers and Saints vs. Falcons.
All kickoff times below are ET.
Steelers vs. Colts — 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Pittsburgh D vs. Anthony Richardson matchup alone is enough to take the Steelers as road favorites in Indy.
Richardson (season completion percentage: 49.3) has not been nearly accurate enough for us to like the Colts’ chances against anyone, much less an elite D like Pittsburgh’s. We expect T.J. Watt and Co. — who have given up just 26 points, total, in three weeks — to make Sunday a brutal afternoon for Richardson and the Colts.
The Steelers offense is also beginning to show signs of life, with Justin Fields coming off a solid day against the Chargers: 245 yards through the air on 25-of-32 passing, with 1 TD and 1 interception.
Best bet: Steelers -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel, ESPN BET, bet365)
Bonus bet: Colts Team Total Under 17.5 (+114 at DraftKings)
Broncos vs. Jets — 1 p.m. (CBS)
Yes, we’re aware how betting on heavy favorites has gone this year.
In fact, we got burned underestimating none other than Denver in its Week 3 trip to Tampa, as the Broncos won 26-7 as heavy underdogs last Sunday.
But the Jets look like a tough matchup for Denver, which was able to completely shut down the Buccaneers last Sunday. On a dominant day by its defense, the Broncos and rookie QB Bo Nix were able to jump out to a 20-7 halftime lead, and Nix did just enough in the short passing game for his first win as a pro.
The N.Y. defense is much better than Tampa’s, though, particularly in the front seven. That means that if Nix is unable to push the ball downfield, the Broncos could be in for a slog.
Robert Saleh’s defense struggled in Week 1 against San Francisco, but it suffocated both Will Levis in Week 2 and Jacoby Brissett in Week 3. Although Nix is much more mobile than Brissett, we expect the rookie to struggle against All-Pro DT Quinnen Williams, rising star DE Will McDonald and a Jets pass rush that has piled up 11 sacks in the last two weeks.
This line has moved toward the Jets since it opened earlier this week, so jump on it ASAP to avoid having to lay 8 or more points.
Best bet: Jets -7.5 (-110 at ESPN BET)
Bonus bet: Broncos Team Total Under 15.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Browns vs. Raiders — 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
We needed a fortunate late break (thank you, Giants RB Devin Singletary) for the under to hit in Browns-Giants last week, and we like the under in Cleveland’s Week 4 matchup as well.
Gardner Minshew came alive for Las Vegas late in his team’s Week 2 upset of Baltimore, but has mostly struggled this season, and Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson has been awful. Through three games, he’s averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt (not a misprint).
The Raiders gave up 23 points to Baltimore and 36 to Carolina the last two weeks, but are good enough on D to lock up a Browns offense that is averaging 16.7 points per game.
This Under feels like a slam-dunk.
Best bet: Under 37.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Patriots vs. 49ers — 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Sticking with offenses we expect to struggle, the Pats’ O looked broken the last time we saw it. The Jets are a good defensive team, but New England’s going to have a ton of difficulty scoring points if its O-line — which was one of the biggest concerns for this team entering the season — doesn’t get healthy and/or improve substantially, and soon.
The Pats upset Cincinnati and hung with Seattle thanks to two big games by Rhamondre Stevenson, but it’s hard to see NE’s banged-up OL paving the way for a big day on the ground in San Francisco. And we saw what happened against the Jets (just 3 points, 11 first downs, and 139 yards of total offense) when the Pats were forced to rely on the passing game.
The Niners are better than their 1-2 record, and they’ll have something to prove after back-to-back losses, including a late collapse against NFC West rival L.A. last week.
We like San Francisco to roll at home, especially if TE George Kittle and/or WR Deebo Samuel are available after injuries sidelined them in Week 3.
Best bet: 49ers -10 (-115 at ESPN BET)
Saints vs. Falcons — 1 p.m. (FOX)
This line has moved from Atlanta -1.5 to Atlanta -2.5 in most places. As long as it stays there, we like the Falcons to win and cover at home (and while Atlanta -1.5 is available at FD, bettors should take advantage).
The Falcons are a couple bad bounces last Sunday night against the Chiefs away from being 2-1, with wins over Philadelphia and Kansas City. Kirk Cousins has looked better every week this season as he gets A) healthier and B) more comfortable in a new offense.
The Saints looked incredible in Weeks 1 and 2, but their Week 3 loss to Philadelphia as home favorites showed that the low preseason expectations for Derek Carr and Co. might not have been so off the mark, after all.
Few offenses were less effective last Sunday than the Saints, who managed just 130 yards passing on 25 attempts and 89 yards rushing on 29 carries.
Even if the New Orleans offense takes a step forward this week, don’t expect Carr to outduel Cousins, Bijan Robinson and Drake London at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Best bet: Atlanta -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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