Every Tuesday this NFL season, Newsweek sports betting writers Tyler Everett and Matt Modi will offer their early ATS bets on every game on the schedule.
Note: A bit of housekeeping before we dive into this week’s picks. Congrats to Matt Modi on his recent wedding! With Modi currently honeymooning, Everett is flying solo on the early NFL Week 7 NFL ATS picks.
We’ve got another great lineup of games this weekend.
With just two teams — the Bears and Cowboys — on the bye, Week 7’s 15-game slate starts with the “Sean Payton Bowl” between the Broncos and Saints on Thursday night.
This weekend’s action includes yet another early Sunday kickoff over in London, plus a Monday Night Football doubleheader featuring arguably the best MNF matchup of the young season: Baltimore’s trip to Tampa Bay for a battle of 4-2 teams.
Week 6 was much more kind to the public than previous weeks, as road favorites went 9-0 ATS. Related: Everett had another decent week at 8-6, just ahead of Modi at 6-8.
Season records on early NFL ATS picks:
- Modi: 39-48-5
- Everett: 38-49-5
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Broncos (-2) at Saints — Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Broncos -2
Both these teams are coming off tough losses to divisional rivals last Sunday. And right now, with Derek Carr sidelined, both are led by rookie quarterbacks. This is a tough game to call, but we’ll take Bo Nix and the Broncos over Spencer Rattler and the Saints.
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Patriots at Jaguars (-5.5) — Sunday, 9:30 a.m.
Patriots-Jaguars takes place in London, with Jacksonville as the “home team” at Wembley Stadium
Everett: Patriots +5.5
The Jags should show some fight after getting blown out by the Bears in London last week. That being said, New England feels like a good bet to keep this game close in rookie QB Drake Maye’s second career start.
Lions at Vikings (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Lions +2.5
Both these NFC North rivals are off to outstanding starts to the season. Detroit is coming off a dominant win over Dallas, while Minnesota was on the bye in Week 6. The Lions will miss star DE Aidan Hutchinson, but we like Jared Goff and Detroit to squeak out a hard-fought road win.
Texans at Packers (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Texans +2.5
Expect this game to come down to whoever wins the turnover battle. On paper, the visitors should have the edge. Stroud has thrown four picks in six games this year (interception rate: 1.9 percent), while Love has been intercepted six times in two fewer games (int. rate: 4.1 percent).
Bengals (-4.5) at Browns — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Bengals -4.5
The Browns have managed to keep most of their games close despite continued poor play by Deshaun Watson, but we like Cincinnati to win by a touchdown after holding the Giants to just seven points in Week 6.
Seahawks at Falcons (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Falcons -2.5
The Falcons have won three in a row, and the Kirk Cousins-led offense is humming, with an average 33-plus points per game during this winning streak. Don’t be surprised if this one is a shootout, but we don’t see Atlanta losing at home to the Seahawks, who have struggled to get stops each of the last three weeks.
Titans at Bills (-8.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Bills -8.5
Against all but the best teams in the league, Bills QB Josh Allen is good enough for Buffalo to win in spite of his currently underwhelming supporting cast. QB Will Levis and the Titans have been awful offensively, which makes us feel comfortable trusting the Bills to cover this big spread on the road.
Eagles (-3.5) at Giants — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Giants +3.5
The Giants are good enough on defense to cover as home underdogs against the Eagles, who have found themselves in nail-biters in four of their first five games of 2024.
Dolphins at Colts (-3.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Dolphins +3.5
The Dolphins won their last game, grinding out a 15-10 win over New England prior to their Week 6 bye. With Tyler Huntley set to make his third start, we expect the Miami offense to play just well enough to cover 3.5 points. So far this year, all six of the 3-3 Colts’ games have been decided by six points or fewer, including four by a FG or less.
Panthers at Commanders (-7.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Commanders -7.5
This banged up Carolina defense, which is allowing a league-worst 33.8 points per game, doesn’t have the personnel to hold many offenses, much less the best ones in the league, under 30. That’s bad news against Jayden Daniels and Co., who should be able to win this game by double digits.
Raiders at Rams (-5.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Rams -5.5
The Raiders offense has not played well since its shocking Week 2 road upset of the Ravens, and that’s putting it nicely. The Rams are better than their 1-4 record — in addition to upsetting San Francisco, this team put up a good fight in losses to Detroit, Chicago and Green Bay– and they could welcome back star WR Cooper Kupp for this contest. Give us L.A. to win and cover.
Chiefs at 49ers (-1.5) — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Chiefs +1.5
The Niners are tempting as slight home ‘dogs for a couple reasons. Kyle Shanahan’s team is A) fresh after playing on Thursday night in Week 6 and B) coming off an impressive offensive showing against Seattle, to name a few.
Nevertheless, let’s go with the Chiefs to find a way coming off their best offensive showing of the season in Week 5, followed by their bye last Sunday.
Jets (-1.5) at Steelers — Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Everett: Steelers +1.5
The Jets got a boost on Tuesday when they acquired former Packers WR Davante Adams to reunite with Aaron Rodgers. Backing the Jets in primetime has backfired twice already this year, so I’ll take the Steelers to pull out a close win at home.
Ravens (-3.5) at Buccaneers — Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Ravens -3.5
It’s dangerous to doubt coach Todd Bowles’ Bucs given their performances as underdogs this year. Tampa won by by 4 points as 7.5-point underdogs in Detroit in Week 2, and it beat Philly by 17 in Week 4 as 1-point ‘dogs. The Bucs also nearly won as 2.5-point underdogs against Atlanta in Week 5, but collapsed late and lost 36-30 in OT.
Despite all that, we’re going to roll the dice and back Baltimore to narrowly cover after it beat Cincinnati 41-38 on the road in Week 5 and Washington 30-23 in Week 6.
Chargers (-2.5) at Cardinals — Monday, 9 p.m.
Everett: Chargers -2.5
The Kyler Murray-led Arizona offense has had its moments this season. But Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are too good defensively (L.A. is first in the league with just 13.2 points allowed per game) for me to pick the 2-4 Cards here.
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