No. 4 Penn State’s trip to L.A. to take on the USC Trojans on Saturday lost some of its luster over the last couple weeks as USC fell out of the AP top 25 with losses to Michigan and Minnesota.
Nevertheless, Saturday’s game is massive for both teams.
Penn State vs. USC kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Penn State vs. USC Betting Odds
Below are the odds for Saturday’s game in the three main markets: the spread, moneyline and total.
| DraftKings | bet365 | FanDuel | |
| PSU spread | -3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-102) |
| USC spread | +3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-120) |
| PSU ML | -175 | -180 | -172 |
| PSU ML | +145 | +150 | +142 |
| Total | 51 (o-108; u-112) | 50.5 (o-110; u-110) | 50.5 (o-110; u-110) |
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Penn State vs. USC Betting Preview
Perfect Septembers are nothing new for James Franklin and the 5-0 (2-0 Big Ten) Nittany Lions, but in recent years, they have not fared well against the top teams on their schedule.
Penn State only has two currently ranked opponents on this year’s schedule: No. 19 Illinois, which PSU beat 21-7 two weeks ago, and No. 2 Ohio State, which visits Happy Valley on Nov. 2. That leaves little room for error for a team with College Football Playoff hopes.
USC is battle-tested after taking on LSU in Las Vegas in Week 1 and Michigan in Ann Arbor in Week 4. The 3-2 (1-2 Big Ten) Trojans are off to a rough start in conference play, but they do boast two solid early-season wins over No. 13 LSU and Wisconsin
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting News, Analysis
Sportsbooks see Penn State as a heavy favorite to reach the 12-team playoff, which would mark the Nittany Lions’ first playoff appearance under James Franklin. Now in his 11th year at the helm at PSU, Franklin has built a program that perennially handles just about every team on its schedule besides Ohio State and Michigan.
This year, with a schedule that does not feature the Wolverines or Oregon, Penn State has a great chance at a top-12 finish as long as it beats everyone besides the Buckeyes.
The Nittany Lions have built a reputation as one of the best defensive teams in the country under Franklin. This defense has lived up to that standard so far this year. PSU stifled West Virginia in a 34-12 in its season opener, and it also shut down No. 23 Illinois and UCLA earlier this season, giving up just 18 points total in its first two conference games.
Offensively, Penn State is once again excellent in the running game. RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen both average 5 yards per carry or better, and QB Drew Allar is completing better than 70 percent of his passes, with 1,101 yards, 9 TDs and 1 interception.
USC Trojans Betting News, Analysis
USC opened the season with an impressive win over LSU to kick off the post-Caleb Williams era. QB Miller Moss, who also showed out in his debut as USC’s QB1 in last year’s Holiday Bowl win over Louisville, was lights-out against the Tigers, with 378 yards on 27-of-36 passing.
Over the last three games, though, Moss has been up-and-down. He threw for 283 yards, 3 TDs and 1 pick against Michigan, but needed 51 passing attempts to do so. He also threw two costly interceptions in his team’s upset loss to Minnesota last Saturday.
Moss gives USC a chance to upset Penn State at home on Saturday, but he’ll have to avoid turnovers after throwing four picks the last three weeks, including a game-changing pick-six against the Wolverines.
Defensively, USC has been solid overall a year after it couldn’t stop anyone. This team is No. 29 nationally in points allowed per game at 18.4, but it has been vulnerable against the run. The Trojans gave up 290 yards rushing to Michigan in a 27-24 loss, and they gave up 193 yards on the ground on 40 carries in last Saturday’s loss to the Gophers.
The inability to stop the run (obviously) does not bode well against Penn State’s duo of Singleton and Allen. Those two could take the crowd out of this game early if the USC defense doesn’t do a much better up front than it did in recent weeks.
Penn State vs. USC Prediction, Best Bets
Given Penn State’s issues against elite teams in recent years — and how well USC played against LSU in Week 1 — Lincoln Riley’s squad looks at first glance like a real threat to hand the Nittany Lions their first loss of the year.
But neither Moss’s ability to stretch the field nor the home crowd will have an impact if Penn State is able to run the ball at will. And based on the last couple weeks, it’s hard to see the Trojans shutting down Singleton and Allen without bringing extra bodies into the box.
If Allar, who struggled mightily against Ohio State, Ole Miss and Michigan a year ago, can make USC for selling out to stop the run, Penn State should be able to win this game somewhat comfortably.
That’s no guarantee based on what we’ve seen of him throughout his career. It is worth noting, though, that the Penn State offense has showed more balance through five games under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
Ultimately, we like Penn State to stay undefeated, but barely.
We’d probably take USC to cover a bigger spread, but we’ll go with the Nittany Lions to win and cover in a tight, low-scoring game.
Penn State vs. USC Best Bets
- Penn State -3.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
- Under 51 (-112 at DraftKings)
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