Historian Allan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus” of U.S. elections, has shared his thoughts on whether the fallout of Hurricane Helene and the imminent Hurricane Milton could have consequences on November’s election.
Mere weeks after Helene ravaged much of the East Coast, Florida is bracing for Milton to make landfall late Wednesday.
“The hurricane is a humanitarian catastrophe, and of course it is critically important that the response be as effective as possible,” Lichtman told Newsweek.
He bemoaned the politicization of the disaster, which ABC News reported has left more than 230 dead in its wake.
An October 8 YouGov poll found that former President Donald Trump was marginally more trusted than Vice President Kamala Harris to handle hurricane disasters, by 42 percent to 40 percent.
Experts have suggested Helene’s deadly assault on the East Coast could cost up to $160 billion in damages and economic loss. The health of the U.S. economy is one of the many metrics, or “keys,” Lichtman considers when predicting election outcomes.
“The storm does not, however, affect either the short-term or the long-term economic key. It is not going to push us into recession in the next few weeks or impact [the] full record of real per capita growth during the Biden term, which is twice the average of the previous two terms,” the historian said.
Historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman in an interview with AFP in Bethesda, Maryland, on September 7. Lichtman created a model using 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party would win or lose the next election. According to his model, the democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, will win the 2024 election.
Pedro Ugarte/AFP via Getty Images
Lichtman earned the moniker “Nostradamus,” after the French reputed seer of the Renaissance, for his impressive track record of predicting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections.
His model, “The Keys to the White House,” hinge on 13 keys, which evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on areas such as the economy, foreign policy and domestic politics, including social unrest, major scandals and the presence of a third-party candidate.
If six or more of the 13 keys—all true/false statements—are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.
The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are these:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Based on this system, Lichtman has formally predicted that Harris will win the 2024 election.
Speaking with Newsweek after the initial publication of his prediction, Lichtman said the foreign policy keys were the hardest to predict.
“You’re dealing with two wars—two uncertain wars that are very fluid—which makes those two keys extremely difficult to call,” he said.
“Even if they both flipped against the Democrats, there still would not be enough [false] keys to predict their defeat,” Lichtman added.
He continued: “And frankly, I think the most reasonable construction of the foreign policy keys, which does reflect the record of the Biden administration, is that they would be split.”
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