Putin’s North Korea Move Might Backfire—Here’s Why

Reports of North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine appear to be motivating South Korea to provide weapons to the Ukrainians for the first time, which could be a boon to Kyiv at a tough moment in the grinding war.

While firmly aligned with the U.S. and a supporter of Ukraine, South Korea has so far declined to provide lethal aid for its war effort, although Seoul has sent humanitarian packages, including medical supplies, to Kyiv.

South Korea has backfilled the military stocks of countries, providing equipment and ammunition for Ukraine, such as the U.S. But on Tuesday, Seoul said it would take “phased measures” against Pyongyang and Moscow, with a senior presidential official saying this could include “offensive” weapons for Ukraine.

This would mark a significant change in policy for Seoul, and it comes as Kyiv is trying to keep its artillery systems firing and air defense systems stocked with interceptor missiles. More than two and a half years into the war, both Kyiv and Moscow are looking for ways to replenish their tired ranks ahead of another tough winter.

“It seems that the harder [Russian President Vladimir] Putin finds it to recruit Russians to be cannon fodder, the more willing he is to rely on DPRK in his illegal war,” the U.K.’s envoy to the U.N., Barbara Woodward, said at a Monday meeting of the Security Council. She was referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

South Korea also called for “the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops” in what it termed “the illegal military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.”

Seoul “will not stand by but respond firmly in collaboration with the international community,” said Kim Tae-hyo, South Korea’s principal deputy national security adviser, according to the country’s Yonhap News Agency.

South Korea has deep concerns over Russia’s relationship with North Korea, namely that Moscow is helping Pyongyang develop its defense industry and nuclear programs, which could be used against its southern neighbor.

Russia had dismissed reports of North Korean troops fighting on Moscow’s behalf as “fake news.” But Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stopped short of a denial on Tuesday, describing the reports as “contradictory.”

“North Korea is our close neighbor, our partner, and we are developing our relations in all areas. This is our sovereign right,” Peskov said.

“This should not worry anyone because this cooperation is not directed against third countries,” Peskov said in remarks reported by state media. Moscow would “continue to develop this cooperation,” he added.

South Korean officials are considering sending their own personnel to war-torn Ukraine to monitor North Korea’s actions in the territory, Yonhap separately reported on Tuesday, citing an anonymous government source.

A lot is unknown about the depth of Pyongyang’s support for Russia’s war effort, although intelligence from Ukraine and South Korea has long suggested the North has provided significant munitions and missile deliveries, which have then been used against Ukraine.

“The Kremlin’s apparent desire to assure South Korea that its cooperation with North Korea is not a threat to Seoul suggests that the Kremlin remains very concerned about the prospect of Seoul’s potential pivot towards providing Ukraine with necessary military support,” said the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S. think tank, on Monday.

South Korea has a vast stockpile of munitions and a substantial arms industry, making Seoul “one of the biggest remaining sources of NATO-pattern equipment that could go to Ukraine but haven’t yet,” said Jacob Parakilas, a research leader in defense and security at the European branch of the Rand Corp. think tank.

“The exact significance heavily depends on details we don’t yet know. A small number of North Korean troops going to the front probably isn’t a game changer for Russia, and a small symbolic shipment of South Korean arms isn’t a game changer for Ukraine,” Parakilas told Newsweek.

“But it certainly reinforces the sense that the geopolitical dividing lines around the war are growing and hardening as we approach the war’s third anniversary,” he said.

Possible deployment of North Korean fighters to the front lines in Ukraine indicates a “growing desperation” in Russia but also shows that Moscow is not entirely isolated, said James Rogers, the director of research for the U.K.-based Council on Geostrategy think tank.

If South Korea intervenes on Ukraine’s behalf, this “would stymie the Russian initiative,” Rogers told Newsweek, and hammer home the links between Europe and Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week that Pyongyang was “already preparing a contingent to fight against Ukraine,” with around 10,000 soldiers earmarked for that effort.

The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, Kyrylo Budanov, suggested that around a quarter of this number would be initially sent to Russia’s border Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise offensive in August.

South Korea’s intelligence agency said this past Friday that its northern neighbor had sent around 1,500 special forces personnel to the Russian port city of Vladivostok, with more forces expected to arrive soon.

The soldiers are “expected to be deployed to the front lines as soon as they complete their adaptation training,” Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a statement. The spy agency said the North Korean soldiers had been equipped with Russian military uniforms, Russian-made weapons and fake documents claiming the fighters were residents of regions in Siberia.

“It appears that they disguised themselves as Russian soldiers to hide the fact that they were deployed to the battlefield,” the NIS said.

Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency, has indicated that an initial cohort of around 2,600 North Korean troops would be sent to Kursk.

Footage published online by Russian and Ukrainian sources in recent days appears to show North Korean soldiers at a Russian training ground in the far-eastern Primorsky region, which borders North Korean territory.

The British government said on Tuesday that it was “highly likely that hundreds of combat troops from North Korea have arrived in Russia.”