Baseball fans celebrated — or more accurately, bemoaned — the 50th anniversary of the first Tommy John surgery this week. The surgery that Los Angeles Dodgers team physician Dr. Frank Jobe performed in Sept. 1974 saved the career of John, who needed a replacement ligament in his left elbow.
John would go on to pitch another 14 seasons after having the procedure, throwing his final pitch at age 46.
Now, the surgery is increasingly common as more pitchers find their elbow ligaments damaged — likely a consequence of throwing harder. According to Pitch/FX data, the mean fastball velocity in MLB has increased from 90.9 miles per hour in 2008 to 93.7 mph this year.
It’s easy to lose sight of John’s remarkable career amid all the debate around the surgery that bears his name.
From 1963-89, he went 288-231 with a 3.34 ERA (111 ERA+), starting 700 games and relieving another 60. Only seven pitchers in the history of Major League Baseball have started more games.
Los Angles Dodgers pitcher Tommy John chills his elbow in ice after learning he may face surgery for the second time in two years and had been placed on the 21-day disabled list. John says his support of Donald Trump might be keeping him out of the Hall of Fame.
Bettmann/Getty Images
Ironically, as the quest for velocity has corresponded with the increase in Tommy John surgeries, the average lifespan of a major league pitcher seems to be taking a hit. John’s best trait as a pitcher was his longevity. Only Nolan Ryan appeared in more seasons (27) in major league history than John.
So why isn’t John in the Baseball Hall of Fame?
Hall of Fame voting is notoriously fickle. For decades, 300 wins stood as a historical benchmark for excellence; John fell just short. He’s also among the all-time leaders in a variety of undesirable categories: hits allowed (10th), earned runs allowed (16th), wild pitches (17th), losses (19th), walks (41st). A credit to his longevity or a discredit to his ability?
The answer lies in the eye of the voter.
Tommy John has also been a candidate on 4 Era Committee ballots (2011, ‘14, ‘18, ‘20), voted on mainly by HOF players and executives. Not once did he get enough votes for his actual total to be announced. It’s not politics that’s kept him out https://t.co/hkIRRKnYh8
— Jay Jaffe (@jay_jaffe) September 25, 2024
John last appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot in 2009. That was his last of 15 chances. The Baseball Writers Association of America never awarded him more than 31.7 percent of their votes.
Rather than anything he did on the field — or the surgery that bears his name — John offered a different explanation for why he hasn’t been voted into Cooperstown.
“Maybe because I voted for Donald Trump,” John told The Michael Kay Show on Wednesday.
“You think that’s it?” Kay responded.
“Probably,” John said. “I don’t know.”
Tommy John tells The Michael Kay Show he’s not in the Hall of Fame because he voted for Trump. Tommy John was on the ballot from 1995-2009. pic.twitter.com/pxp7AruPGS
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) September 25, 2024
The flaw in John’s logic is obvious: Trump was not nominated for the Republican presidential ticket until 2016. It’s possible that John believes his politics influenced the opinion of the 16-voter Hall of Fame Veterans Committee in 2018 and 2020, neither of which voted him in.
It’s also possible — if not likely — that those committees simply preferred other candidates. Former Detroit Tigers stars Jack Morris and Alan Trammell were inducted by the 2018 committee. Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons collected all of the other available votes.
In 2020, Miller (the founder of the MLB Players Association) and Simmons were inducted on their next available opportunity. Four other candidates received votes that year.
In any case, it’s an interesting take by a pitcher whose name has become synonymous with injuries.
