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Russia’s ‘Coup’ Dispute With Neighbor Heats Up

September 20, 2024
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Russia and Armenia are engaged in a heated diplomatic dispute following an accusation that Russia trained Armenian citizens to perform a coup against their own government.

Seven alleged Armenian conspirators are being prosecuted on espionage charges, the Investigative Committee of the Republic of Armenia (ICRA) revealed in a report on September 18.

Armenia has become somewhat isolated in the Caucasus region after violent clashes with neighbor Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh led to Armenia‘s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, withdrawing troops and giving up the territory in 2020.

The ICRA believes that the conspirators were paid in Russian rubles, and trained at a Russian base, further exacerbating tensions between Russia and Armenia, ongoing since 2022.

According to the ICRA, the alleged rebels were paid 220,000 Russian rubles per month, the equivalent of $2,369.98. Additionally, they spent three months in Russia learning how to use heavy weapons and perform combat duty.

These rebels are alleged to be Armenian citizens, and former residents of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been contacted via email for comment.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Moscow
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council of the Eurasian Economic Union at the Kremlin, May 8, 2024. He has become increasingly isolated in the region.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council of the Eurasian Economic Union at the Kremlin, May 8, 2024. He has become increasingly isolated in the region.
Evgenia Novozhenina/Associated Press

In 2021, Armenia froze its engagement with the CSTO—a NATO-like bloc for some former Soviet republic nations—due to the CSTO’s failure to protect Armenia from an Azerbaijani invasion of its territory. Azerbaijan is currently occupying 50-215 square kilometers (upto 83 square miles) of sovereign Armenian territory.

Pashinyan accused Russia and the CSTO of failing to support Armenia during the conflict, and instead conspiring with Azerbaijan against them.

Dr. Neil Melvin, Director of International Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based think tank, told Newsweek: “[Prime Minister Pashinyan]’s accusation is the latest in a series of announcements by the authorities in Armenia that they have foiled coup attempts, although there is, as yet, relatively little evidence to support the latest claim.”

Callum Fraser Research Fellow in Russia and Eurasian Studies at RUSI said that Russia has been engaged in a campaign to fan the flames of discontent in Armenia.

According to Fraser, Russia has been pointing to Pashinyan’s so-called ineffectiveness following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Fraser said: “It is not beyond possibility that Russia would simultaneously be trying to actively overthrow the current Armenian government.”

Dr. Melvin added: “Moscow has seen the current PM Pashinyan as a challenge to its influence in Armenia since he came to power in the 2018 following mass street protests, and particularly since 2022 as he has diversified Armenia’s foreign and defense policy away from Russia.”

Putin and Pashinyan in Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan speaking at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia. Pashinyan accuses Russia of backing a coup by Armenians.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan speaking at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia. Pashinyan accuses Russia of backing a coup by Armenians.
Alexander Shcherbak/Associated Press

Fraser said that the claims of Russia failing to support Armenia are supported by the fact that Russia has failed to challenge how Azerbaijan is currently occupying 50-215 square kilometers of sovereign Armenian territory. Fraser added that Russia utilizes Azerbaijani territorial interests to coerce Armenia to remain within the CSTO.

Also, Pashinyan has expressed a desire to ultimately join the EU.

Fraser said: “Armenia still has a long journey before it will be eligible to join the EU. However, this [alleged coup attempt] may increase the urgency with which they pursue candidacy.”

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