Russia’s Growing Grip on European Neighbor Faces pro-NATO Fightback

Tina Bokuchava’s predecessor as chair of Georgia’s largest opposition party ended up with a black eye, a bloody nose and cuts on his face after being beaten by police at a protest against what critics call a Russian-style “foreign agent” law.

The 41-year-old Bokuchava, educated from high school through to graduate studies in Massachusetts, said she was under no illusions where Georgia was headed if the ruling Georgian Dream party wins an October 26 election that opponents have styled a last chance to keep the country on the path to joining the European Union and NATO rather than drifting further towards Russia.

The former Soviet republic’s ruling party has threatened to shut down the opposition if it wins.

“We have to literally save Georgian democracy, our right to elections, the right of political parties to exist,” Bokuchava told Newsweek in an interview during a visit to London.

“We have elections where we can revert Georgia on its Euro Atlantic path, and I believe that is precisely what’s going to happen, although the path to those elections is a difficult one,” the chair of the United National Movement (UNM) said.

Bokuchava took over as chair in June, weeks after her predecessor Levan Khabeishvili was beaten up by police at a rally against a new law that cracks down on media and non-governmental organizations that get foreign funding.

The passage of that law prompted the European Union to suspend accession talks while the United States suspended $95 million in aid and canceled joint military exercises.

Georgia’s government and the Georgian Dream party did not respond to Newsweek‘s request for comment on the opposition’s accusations.

Billionaire businessman and former prime minister Bidzina Ivanishvili is behind Georgian Dream, which Western countries say has taken an increasingly authoritarian turn and become more closely aligned with Russia — which briefly invaded Georgia in 2008 and keeps soldiers in two separatist enclaves that make up a fifth of Georgia’s land mass.

Although Georgia has only a third the population of the U.S. state of the same name, it is strategic and sits between Russia and Iran and on energy transit routes.

Losing it to Russia would be a blow to U.S. and Western prestige as Russian President Vladimir Putin pursues his invasion of Ukraine, another country that had sought to move towards the West, political analysts say.

Georgia’s constitution commits it to take measures to join NATO and the European Union, but that could be in doubt after the election, with some in the ruling party floating the idea that progress towards the West could be abandoned for better relations with Russia. Georgian Dream supporters have branded their opponents as a “Global War Party” serving foreign interests and seeking to open a new battle front against Russia.

“Our real chance of security, stability, peace, prosperity, development, in fact, lies in Georgia’s integration in NATO and the European Union,” Bokuchava said, lamenting that Georgia had not been integrated into the Western blocs in 2008. “You had a fiercely pro-Western government then, but not the political will to fully open the doors for Georgia to Europe and NATO. Now it’s the other way around.”

She accused the ruling party of engaging in intimidation of the opposition, coercion of voters and vote buying, particularly in poorer regions away from the capital Tbilisi.

Last week, a party leader in Tbilisi had been beaten and arrested, she said. The father of an opposition youth leader had received a call saying his son would be murdered.

Bokuchava recounted intimidating phone calls she had received herself.

“I got one, for example, when I was putting my nine-year-old son to sleep. Just verbally attacking you and insulting you, etcetera, and saying that they know exactly what each family member is doing, where they are. Two minutes after they hung up with me, they called my father, and then my husband,” she said.

Bokuchava said she remained confident that Georgian Dream would be defeated in the election even with an opposition that is divided among different factions.

“The Georgian state is increasingly authoritarian, but we’re not Belarus or Russia or Venezuela yet,” she said. “If the margin is large enough in the electoral result, it will be impossible for Ivanishvili to claim victory.

“The Georgian people will certainly not be complacent in a situation where their will is not reflected in the election outcome.”

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has accused the United States of preparing a so-called “color revolution” to stop Georgian Dream from winning, with plans to allege vote rigging if it is declared the winner, according to Russian state news agency Tass.

“The Americans intend to turn up the heat on the Georgian authorities on a large scale in the remaining weeks before the elections in order to weaken the electoral position of Georgian Dream as much as possible,” the intelligence agency was quoted as saying.

Neither the U.S. State Department nor Russia’s foreign ministry responded to requests for comment.

Bokuchava said she would welcome personal sanctions on Ivanishvili from Western countries ahead of the ballot and said there would be protests if people thought the election had been stolen in a country where polls show 80 percent support for joining the European Union.

“There is no way you will keep these young people off the streets if their future is stolen from them,” she said. “Ivanishvili and the Kremlin can chime in unison about what color that resistance will have, but the young people of Georgia will fight for their future.”