The Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens, a group of experts independent of the World Health Organization , published an assessment of the COVID origins in late June.
The report concluded we do not know definitively where the virus responsible for the pandemic originated.
The best-supported hypothesis is that the virus has a zoonotic source and spreads from animals to people.
SAGO found no scientific evidence that “a deliberate manipulation in a lab and subsequent breach of biosafety” was possible.
The conclusion is similar to those reached by reports, and papers in the early days of this pandemic: COVID was most likely transmitted from an animal infected at the Huanan Market in Wuhan and not a laboratory leak.
Conspiracy theories persist about the origins of COVID. This is a major obstacle to our ability prevent the next pandemic.
A threat to our research
In 2020, as experts on the emergence of virus, we published in Nature Medicine a peer reviewed paper about the origins SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID.
We evaluated, like SAGO several hypotheses as to how a novel Coronavirus might have emerged in Wuhan late in 2019. We concluded that the virus was likely spread by a “zoonosis”, a natural outbreak of animals, caused by unregulated wildlife trade.
Since then, the paper has been a focus of conspiracies and attacks on politics.
It is not a conspiracy to believe that SARS-CoV-2 was created in a lab. , like many scientists, took that possibility seriously. We still believe it, even though there is no evidence to back it up.
The public discourse on the origins of the pandemic is increasingly shaped by conspiracy theories and political agendas. has targeted our work, and has vilified the experts that have studied this issue in a data driven manner.
One common conspiracy theory states that senior officials forced us, to promote ” preferred“, hypothesis of natural origin while silencing any possibility of a leak in the lab. Some conspiracy theories suggest that we were rewarded in exchange for our efforts.
These stories are false. ignore or dismiss. misrepresent. They rely instead on selective quotes from private conversations and a distorted depiction of the scientific process, and the motives of scientists.
What does the evidence say?
Since our Nature Medicine article five years ago, we have accumulated a large amount of new information that has helped us to better understand how SARS-CoV-2 was most likely spread by natural spillover.
Early 2020, it was clear that a zoonotic source existed. The virus has many features that are also found in coronaviruses. These characteristics show signs of evolution. The genome of SARS-CoV-2 did not show any signs of laboratory manipulation.
In China, the multi-billion dollar wildlife industry and animal fur farming industry regularly move high-risk animals often infected by viruses into dense urban areas.
The virus that caused the SARS outbreak is believed to have emerged in this way in 2002, in China’s Guangdong Province.
In December 2019, the Huanan Live-Animal Market in Wuhan in Hubei Province, was the site of the first known COVID cases .
Multiple independent data sources including early hospitalisations; excess pneumonia deaths; antibody studies as well as infections in health-care workers show that COVID spreads first to the district of the market.
In a study, we and other experts found that samples of environmental contamination positive for SARS CoV-2 were concentrated in the area where wildlife is sold.
In a follow-up study, we found that the same samples had genetic material from animals susceptible to it, including raccoons dogs and civets. This was on the cages, carts and other surfaces they used.
It doesn’t mean that infected animals are the cause. It’s exactly what we would expect to see if it was the market where the virus spread first. It’s also not what you would expect from a laboratory leak.
All of these independent lines of evidence indicate that the Huanan Market is the early epicenter for the COVID pandemic.
Read more about the COVID lab leaked theory. Here’s why we know that the virus originated from a Wuhan marketplace
Putting off preparation for the next pandemic
has been undermined by speculation and conspiracy theories about the origins of COVID. The false balance that some commentators have assigned between the lab leak and zoonotic source theories has fuelled conspiracy fire.
The antiscience agenda is used as a way to justify funding cuts for biomedical and public health research. These are vital for pandemic preparation.
In the United States, this has led to major cuts in the US Centers for Disease Control as well as the National Institutes of Health. The US Agency for International Development was closed, and the withdrawal from WHO.
The erosion of trust in science , and public health institutions also hinders the creation and adoption of lifesaving vaccines and other medical interventions . We are more susceptible to future pandemics.
Conspiracy theories about COVID’s origin have promoted a dangerously faulty understanding of pandemic risks. It is illogical to believe that a researcher accidentally created or discovered a pandemic, then infected himself and caused a global epidemic (in a setting where spillovers of natural origin are common). This also diminishes the serious risk that the wildlife trade poses.
Evidence-Based Conclusion That the COVID Pandemic Most Likely Began With a Virus Jumping from Animals to Humans highlights the real threat we face. It is the way pandemics begin and it will occur again. We’re destroying our ability to prepare or stop them.
Edward C Holmes is funded by the Australian Research Council and National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has received consulting fees from Pfizer Australia, Moderna and has held honorary appointments at the China CDC (Fudan University) and the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center.
Andrew Rambaut has received funding from The Gates Foundation and The Wellcome Trust.
Kristian G. Anderson receives funding for his research from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCP) and the Gates Foundation. He has served on the Scientific Advisory Board of Invivyd, Inc., and has consulted about topics related to COVID-19 and other infectious disease pandemics. The opinions and views expressed in this publication reflect only the personal views of the author and are not indicative of Scripps Research or any of its leaders, faculty or staff. Scripps Research is not responsible for the statements in this article.
Robert Garry received funding from Gilead Sciences and Gilead Trust Foundation. He also received funding through the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme, as well as the National Institutes of Health. He is the co-founder and CEO of Zalgen Labs a biotechnology firm that develops countermeasures against emerging viruses.
