Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appear to be neck and neck in a new swing states poll.
The former president appears to be gaining on the vice president in Wisconsin at 49 percent to 48 percent and in Pennsylvania at 48 percent to 47 percent, an Emerson College poll conducted between September 15 to 18 has shown.
However, his lead still lies within the margin of error for both states, of 3 percent for Wisconsin and 3.2 percent for Pennsylvania, making it too close to call.
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The latest New York Times/Siena College Poll shows that the two presidential candidates are tied at 47 percent as of September 19.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event on September 7, 2024, in Mosinee, Wisconsin. In a new swing states poll, Trump and Kamala Harris look neck and neck, but Trump appears to be sneaking ahead in Wisconsin.
Morry Gash/AP
If Trump is able to win Wisconsin, he might not need to gain the support of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Nevada, given the state’s importance in previous elections.
The state of Wisconsin counts for 10 electoral votes in the election, according to Britannica, which situates it in the middle of the U.S. states in terms of how many votes each provides for the presidential election.
This doesn’t detract from the state’s sway in the election, as in four of the past six presidential elections the victorious candidates have been decided by less than a percentage point difference there, as U.S. News reported.
The encyclopedia of American politics Ballotpedia also noted how between 1900 and 2016, Wisconsin decided the outcome of an election 76.67 percent of the time.
In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly won the state against Hillary Clinton with a 0.7 percent margin, per the outlet, but in 2020, only just lost it to President Joe Biden again with a 0.7 percent margin.
Reflecting on the poll, Cornell University’s Professor Bensel told Newsweek that while the polls are “remarkably similar” to those in 2016 and 2020, “Harris might be a little weaker than either Clinton or Biden.”
He stressed it was still “hard to say” how the current election poll compared to those this time in previous elections, as the pollsters have “changed their techniques” in order to “account for a persistent reluctance of Trump supporters to publicly acknowledge their position.”
He concluded that “this will almost certainly be a very close election,” but he “would place my wager on the Democrats, but would expect even odds from the Republicans.”
If Trump loses Wisconsin, he would need to win Pennsylvania in order to have a chance at claiming presidency.
Trump could also win by holding North Carolina, where his lead is currently one point ahead of Harris which is within the margin of error, and by wresting back his hold of Georgia and Arizona.
In Georgia, his lead has increased to 3 points ahead of Harris, and in Arizona it has decreased from a 3 point lead to a 1 point lead, which makes it too close to call given the margin of error.
If Harris is able to win all three Midwestern states, she would not need another state to be elected president in November.
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