Former President Donald Trump has claimed the win as new data suggests more Americans identify as Republicans than as Democrats for the first time since records began.
The survey, published by Gallup, reported that the 2024 election is taking place in an “environment Favorable to GOP”, with 48 percent of respondents identifying as a Republican or leaning towards the Republican party.
By contrast, only 45 percent of respondents said the same about the Democratic party, which is almost a reversal of the proportion reported last election.
Trump was quick to take credit for the shift, posting on Truth social: “The first time since they started keeping track that there are more Republicans than Democrats—and it’s solely because of President Donald J. Trump!”
Donald Trump leaves the stage after speaking at the Israeli American Council National Summit at the Washington Hilton on September 19, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Newsweek contacted the Trump campaign for further comment on the findings.
The top pollster also found that Americans tend to favor the Republicans on top issues, including the economy, where they have a 24 percent lead over Democrats, and immigration, where they have a 22 percent lead.
Gallup claimed that their survey has been “highly predictive of election outcomes”, saying: “The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but three presidential elections since that year.”
According to their numbers this cycle, Americans believe that the Republican Party is better at addressing what they think is the most important problem facing the country, by 46 percent to 41 percent.
Which states does Trump need to win?
Despite Trump’s recent slate of strong polling in the Sun Belt, he will still need to carry at least one of the battleground states in the industrial Midwest to cross the 270-vote threshold in the Electoral College.
Even if he wins North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, along with one district in Maine, he will still be short of two votes in the Electoral College.
Harris remains in the lead across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, though according to most recent polls, with Wisconsin the closest race.
Pollsters significantly underestimated Trump’s support in Wisconsin in 2016 when the state swung backed him after two cycles of voting for Obama.
Nevada will be largely irrelevant if Harris sweeps the Midwest; with only six votes, it isn’t big enough to help Trump get to 270 electoral votes. In this scenario, Harris would win her 270th vote in Nebraska’s second district, one of only two states that assign some of its electoral college votes to congressional districts.
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