Former President Donald Trump has closed the gap on Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, as the two candidates continue to battle it out for this year’s swing states.
According to the latest New York Times–Siena College poll, conducted in partnership with the Philadelphia Inquirer between Oct. 24 and Nov. 2, Trump and Harris are tied at 48 percent apiece in the Keystone State.
The poll, which surveyed 1,527 voters in Pennsylvania, has margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
The NYT-Siena College poll is top in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings, which factor in historical accuracy and methodological transparency, and enjoys the lowest score in terms of bias and errors.
Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump at a roundtable in Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania. The latest poll from The New York Times and Siena College, one of the most accurate pollsters according to 538, shows Trump and Harris neck and neck in the Keystone State.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Harris has enjoyed an edge in all NYT-Siena polls of Pennsylvania since entering the race in late-July, her lead stretching to a commanding four points in the pollster’s previous survey. The latest poll, which was conducted in the days following Trump’s McDonalds photo-op in Bucks County on October 21, could therefore spell trouble for the vice president in this year’s most crucial battleground.
Newsweek has reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for their reaction to the latest polling.
With the election just days away, Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes make it a must-win swing state for both candidates, which would significantly increase their chances of securing the necessary 270 to win the White House.
Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally on October 30, 2024, in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. With only days remaining before the election is over, both candidates are focusing their efforts on the Keystone State.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Other major polls indicate a similarly tight contest in the state, with the latest USA Today/Suffolk poll showing the pair neck and neck at 49 percent, while YouGov’s recent swing state survey showed Harris leading the former president 48 percent to 46.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s own polling aggregate, Trump is leading Harris by 47.9 percent to 47.6, and has held onto an edge since Oct. 20.
As a result, both candidates are devoting time to campaigning in Pennsylvania over the next two days. Trump will be holding rallies in Lititz, Reading and Pittsburgh, while Harris will be closing out her campaign with rallies in Allentown, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on Monday.
Their running mates will be covering the remaining areas, JD Vance appearing in Aston on Sunday afternoon, followed by a rally in Newton on Monday. Meanwhile, Tim Walz and his wife, Gwen, will campaign in Wisconsin and Michigan on Monday before heading to Pennsylvania on Tuesday to mobilize voters in the election’s last hours.
The other battlegrounds are edging toward Harris, according to the NYT-Siena poll, with the vice president grabbing narrow leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia, with Michigan tied and Trump maintaining his advantage in Arizona.
“It has been decades since the polls have shown the nation facing a presidential race that is so close across so many states in both the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt,” The New York Times said of the latest results. “The tightly-contested landscape means the race remains highly uncertain as the campaign enters its final hours.”
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