The gap between registered Republican and Democrat voters in the bellwether Erie County in Pennsylvania narrowed between 2020 and 2024, potentially giving former President Donald Trump a boost.
While there are more Democrat supporters (80,940) compared to Republicans (71,439), the number of those aligning with the Democratic Party had dropped 18 percent over four years. Nearly 99,000 were registered with the party in 2020.
Erie, in the northwest of the battleground state, voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, but he only won by 1 percent.
With fewer potential supporters this time around, Vice President Kamala Harris, who was in the county Monday night, may have a bigger job to do to secure victory.
Earlier in the year, Erie was named one of the top seven swing counties in the election, meaning it could play a pivotal role in deciding the next president of the United States.
“Erie County has voted with the winner in 25 of the last 28 statewide elections, making it one of the ‘swingiest’ swing counties in the United States,” Dr. Joe Morris, chair of the political science department at Mercyhurst University, told YourErie in August.
The county was joined by others in swing states thought to be vital for victory, including Maricopa County in Arizona, Richmond County in Georgia, and Oakland County in Michigan.
President Barack Obama took Erie in both 2008 and 2012, but it turned red for Trump in 2016, before the swing back to blue in 2020.
While it only counts for 2 percent of Pennsylvania’s population, its tendency to swing back and forth has captured the attention of political candidates and experts alike.
When speaking Monday night, Harris went in hard on her opponent, branding him “unstable” and warning supporters that a second term for Trump would be dangerous for the country. Accompanied by video clips for the first time, Harris’ speech was one of the strongest attacks on the Republican so far.
Despite an apparent drop in registered voters, Erie County Democratic Chairperson Sam Talarico told NPR earlier in October that there had been a surge of enthusiasm since Harris became the party’s nominee.
“There are a lot of people, I believe, especially younger people, that just weren’t going to vote,” he said. “And they’ve been energized by Kamala Harris’ entrance onto the stage.”
Trump visited the county two weeks ago, where he attacked Harris for her response to Hurricane Helene before saying he was in Erie to meet with “the workers”, referring to the area’s working-class roots. The former president reportedly still owes thousands of dollars to the area for costs related to his previous rallies.
Pennsylvania’s Team Trump Spokesman Kush Desai told Newsweek in a statement that the GOP’s outreach in the state had been successful.
“Pennsylvanians in Erie County and everywhere else across the Commonwealth have firsthand experienced the peace, prosperity, and stability of the first Trump administration and the disaster, failure, and incompetence of the Harris-Biden administration – which Kamala Harris is running to extend by another four years,” Desai said.
“That’s why our grassroots voter outreach program has been so successful in cutting the Democrats‘ registered voter advantage by nearly half in Pennsylvania as we take our message of ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago’ to voters wherever they are: at their doorstep, on the phone, and even on social media.”
Erie County figures showed a slight drop in Republican registrations, also, going from 74,620 four years ago to 71,439.
Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes could be key for either candidate, and the race remains tight. Recent polling showed Harris with a 1-point lead over Trump, while other surveys showed a far narrower picture.
“Erie picks Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania will pick the president,” Senator John Fetterman told CNN on Monday. “People are discussing how Pennsylvania is a small version of the United States, and Erie is a smaller version of Pennsylvania. It has rural, it has suburban and an urban core, as well, too.”
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email Tuesday afternoon.
Attendees await the arrival of Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris for a rally at Erie Insurance Arena on October 14, 2024, in Erie, Pennsylvania. Registered voter figures showed a drop in Democratic Party supporters in Erie County between 2020 and 2024.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
