Kamala Harris is beating Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, though some polls show the former president ahead.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris is 1.8 points ahead of Trump in the polls, on 46.7 percent to his 44.9 percent. RealClearPolitics’ polling average also puts Harris ahead, though by a margin of just 0.3 point.
Although Harris is leading in the polling averages, recent polls in Pennsylvania have also shown Trump and Harris tied, including the latest Emerson College poll, conducted between August 25 and 28.
Polls showing Trump in the lead include a SoCal Strategies poll from August 23, which put Trump 1 point ahead of Harris among likely voters, as well as a Fabrizio Ward poll from August 21 that put Trump 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup.
Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally in Savannah, Georgia, on Aug. 29, 2024. Harris is ahead in Pennsylvania.
Jacquelyn Martin/AP
The figures come after the Democratic National Convention last week, which was expected to give Harris a boost in the polls. However, according to pollster Nate Silver, Harris saw one of her worst polling days on Thursday – something he attributed to weak numbers for her in Pennsylvania.
“If she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November,” Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin newsletter.
Pennsylvania has voted Democrat in seven of the past eight presidential elections, opting for the Republican candidate only in 2016, when Trump won by a narrow margin of 0.7 percent.
Despite its history, Pennsylvania is considered a battleground state owing to its tight margins in presidential elections and its fluctuating results in congressional votes.
It’s also one of the most important swing states, due to its 19 electoral votes, and is the most likely state to be the tipping point in November, according to 538, meaning it has the highest chance of giving the electoral college winner their 270th electoral vote.
Amid Pennsylvania’s important role in this election, both candidates are targeting the state, with Donald Trump set to visit Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on Friday for a rally, where he is expected to address a range of topics, with a particular focus on energy.
“President Trump knows that Pennsylvania cannot take another four years of a dangerously incompetent and dangerously liberal Kamala Harris. A Trump-Vance Administration will Make America Great Again by unleashing American drilling to halve energy costs, halting the migrant invasion on our southern border, and restoring America’s rightful standing and respect on the world stage,” the Trump campaign said in a press release about the rally.
His visit will be followed by a campaign trail stop by Harris and President Joe Biden in Pittsburgh on Labor Day on Monday.
Trump has visited several times this month, holding a rally in Wilkes-Barre on August 17 and visiting York days later.
The former president has also made a point of highlighting past events in the state, vowing to return to Butler County, where he suffered an assassination attempt during a rally on July 13. The incident, in which Trump was shot in the ear by a gunman, resulted in one man’s death and injuries to two others.
Meanwhile, Harris announced her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, in the state at a rally in Philadelphia. The event, held in the state’s largest city, featured an energizing speech by Pennsylvania’s popular governor, Josh Shapiro, which received a standing ovation.
Polls, including the most recent surveys by Emerson College and SoCal Strategies, show that in the state, Harris is leading among independents, Gen Z voters, Hispanic people and college-educated voters. Meanwhile, Trump is leading among over 65 year olds, non-college-educated voters and white voters.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
