Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon: Where Next?

The deadliest day of the conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon since at least 2006, occurring a week after thousands of Hezbollah guerrillas were targeted using exploding pagers and radios, has raised warnings of a much wider war—and many signs indicate that it has already begun.

The Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah killed nearly 500 people, Lebanon’s health ministry said. Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets into Israel.

While the intense U.S. presidential election campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has dominated the U.S. agenda and kept the world watching, the escalating war in the Middle East underlines the importance of the global perspective.

That’s why Newsweek is launching the Geoscape newsletter—to highlight not only the biggest world stories, such as the conflict between Israel and the various groups supported by Iran from Lebanon to Gaza and beyond, but also those that could be highly significant but overlooked.

Geoscape is going to give pointers to some of those events and to articles around them, many from our own expert team at Newsweek.

I was in Georgia recently. It’s one of those countries that’s not often in the headlines, but right now its importance cannot be underestimated. It stands at a crossroads between moving closer to the West or to a different world order represented by Russia and its friends.

Polls show that most Georgians want to join the European Union and NATO.

But there are also signs of its moving closer to Russia under the current government. That has annoyed Western countries, not least over a new law whose opponents describe it as anti-democratic. The EU has put its path to membership on hold. The United States canceled joint military exercises.

The factors at play in Georgia are a complex mix of politics, business and ambition. They also undoubtedly include the war in Ukraine, where assistance from NATO countries helped prevent a swift Russian victory in 2022 but has by no means turned back Vladimir Putin‘s invasion.

Geopolitical calculations have grown more complex as the economic and military dominance of the United States and the West has slipped. Other powers are on the rise—most importantly China, but also India, which has now overtaken it by population.

We have seen how geopolitics is playing its part in the United States too, from questions over funding for Ukraine to those over support for Israel in its war with Hamas and other Islamist movements backed by Iran. Gaza has become such an important issue for some Muslim voters in battleground states that it could swing the election.

The important global issues we’ll be following are not only those of rival states and military forces.

There are questions over what the warming climate might mean. And as the COVID pandemic showed, what happens in one corner of the world can very quickly spread everywhere. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence and other new technologies will help reshape the world and balances of power.

I have spent much of my career as a journalist reporting from Africa, the Middle East, Europe and Asia. This year, I’ve reported for Newsweek from Israel, Taiwan, Laos and Nigeria as well as the Caucasus.

Newsweek places great importance on its global coverage, with exclusive insight and conversations. Among those who have answered Newsweek‘s questions recently have been Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. You can expect to hear from more world leaders, as well as voices on the ground.

Following what’s happening globally is much more than a matter of curiosity and intellectual enrichment. I hope you’ll find Geoscape a useful guide in helping to make more sense of an increasingly turbulent world.