Ukraine’s operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast may be forcing the Kremlin to shift troops away from priority battlefields, potentially stalling Moscow’s offensives elsewhere, analysts said in a new report.
A Saturday report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that “operational pressures from the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast are impacting Russian operations in every sector throughout the theater.”
President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s allies were caught off guard by Kyiv’s push into the region on August 6, which has led to the capture of around 500 square miles, 100 settlements and 594 prisoners of war according to Ukrainian Commander Oleksandr Syrski.
But until now, analysts have suggested Putin’s strategy would be to leave Kursk, and to use the opportunity to attack elsewhere on the front line.
Ukranian troops in a Soviet-made T-64 tank in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 11, 2024. Kyiv’s incursion in Russia’s Kursk Oblast may be forcing Moscow to shift troops away from priority battlefields.
Roman Pilpey/Getty Images
The latest report by the ISW suggests that Russian forces may have been forced to divert reinforcements from priority battle zones to counter Ukrainian activity in Kursk.
“The Russian military command may have redeployed limited elements intended to reinforce Russia’s priority offensive operation in the Pokrovsk direction to defend against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast,” the ISW reported.
These redeployed forces reportedly include elements from the Russian 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which had been operating in the Pokrovsk direction.
Additional reinforcements have also been pulled from the Donetsk front, including elements of the 1st “Slavic” Motorized Rifle Brigade.
The report stated that while the Russian military command “remains extremely averse to pulling combat effective units from front-line areas,” some of these units have been reassigned to defend Kursk Oblast instead of being committed to offensive operations in Donetsk.
While Ukrainian forces conducted several assaults in Kursk on August 31, including near settlements such as Korenevo and Sudzha, no significant advances have been confirmed, according to the ISW report.
It said that Russian sources claim that Moscow’s forces regained territory in the area, pushing Ukrainian troops out of key positions.
Despite the shifting of Moscow’s troop movements, the report said that the redeployments are unlikely to have an immediate effect on the battlefield situation in Pokrovsk and Toretsk, as the Russian units involved are small and not front-line forces.
However, it remains uncertain whether the Kremlin will redeploy additional reserve forces intended for offensive operations to address the ongoing incursion in Kursk.
The report also discussed Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who said on Saturday that Russia could utilize airfields beyond the reach of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles, further complicating Kyiv’s efforts to strike deep into its opponent’s territory.
In a Saturday meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington D.C., Umerov discussed Ukraine’s military needs, including advanced air-defense systems and other weapons.
