Throughout the political tenure of Donald Trump, the former president has largely molded the Republican Party into his own, although experts question if his MAGA legacy will continue steering the GOP if Trump loses in November.
Trump’s impact on his political party can be seen up and down the ballot, from his endorsed candidates beating out their Republican counterparts in local and state elections to the former president handpicking the Republican National Committee’s leadership in the spring. Trump has ushered in an era of politics that is rhetorically charged and ever partisan, with Trump and his allies pushing that America will be doomed if his political opponents win this year’s election.
As Politico previously reported, the GOP’s policy platform has shifted on several key issues, from abortion to immigration, since the former president’s first bid in 2016. And Trump’s slogan—Make America Great Again—has also landed beyond the campaign trail, becoming a rallying cry for voters who believe Trump represents a return to an “America-first” ideology in Washington.
As University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss described it, “Trump has built what scholars call a charismatic movement—a political movement inseparable from the man himself.”
Donald Trump takes the stage during a campaign rally on August 30 in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. Political analysts shared predictions on the future of Trump’s MAGA movement if the former president loses to Kamala Harris in November.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
In an email to Newsweek on Thursday, Voss argued that Trump’s impact on the GOP will likely only exist as long as he is atop the ticket, writing, “None of the things that typically give a movement continuity would persist after Trump leaves the stage.”
“The Trump movement is not defined by an ideology, not defined by an identifiable social group, and to the extent it’s united by grievances, they’re not fully articulated,” Voss added. “Trump might try to pass the mantle to another figurehead, such as a member of his family or a politician molded in his image, but leadership of a personality-based movement typically is hard to pass on.”
It’s unclear who could take over for Trump once his political tenure expires. The former president, 78, is the oldest presidential nominee in U.S. history, and Voss pointed out his age could be an “additional liability” to Trump’s chances of running another campaign in 2028 should he lose in November.
“More likely, if Trump needs to recede, we will see a variety of prominent politicians jockeying to become the future of the Republican Party, some resembling a fresh incarnation of Trump—still emphasizing immigration and endorsing a retreat from international commitments—and some proposing to chart a new course that could be more successful for the GOP than the last half-dozen years have been,” Voss said. “A Trump loss likely will set off a GOP free-for-all.”
Other experts theorized that the MAGA movement could outlive Trump, but agreed it was unclear who could eventually fill the former president’s shoes. Lee Hannah, political science professor at Wright State University, told Newsweek that while there have been several candidates that “try to run like Trump—even taking on a lot of his rhetoric … I don’t see a natural heir to Trumpism at the moment.”
“But we do see that Trump is making a concerted effort to reach young men and is currently doing better with that demographic than he did in 2020,” Hannah said via email, noting the former president’s recent string of appearances on popular podcasts and streamer sites with figures like Lex Fridman and Adin Ross.
“If anything, it seems like Trumpism is going to widen the gender gap and that may persist long after he is gone,” Hannah added. “So, I see the Trump movement and its impact on the GOP lasting long after him—but they don’t seem to have one person that can encapsulate all that Donald Trump has.”
Experts have said that this year’s election between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris could see one of the biggest gender divides in U.S. history. While the former president remains ahead of his Democratic opponent among young male voters, Harris holds a consistent lead among women voters, and surveys show that young women of Generation Z are far more liberal than their male counterparts.
Political analyst Craig Agranoff said in a text message to Newsweek on Thursday that it was “unlikely that the influence of ‘Trumpism'” would “disappear” if Trump loses his reelection bid, adding the movement’s priorities that “have resonated with a significant portion of the electorate will continue to shape the Republican Party and its future candidates.”
“Whether Trump himself would run in 2028 is speculative, but the movement he’s built has inspired a younger generation of political figures [and] voters who may carry on its themes regardless of his candidacy,” Agranoff added. “The real question is how the party evolves in response to changing political dynamics!”
