Donald Trump is preparing to hold a string of rallies in firmly Democratic states, prompting questions about his campaign strategy and why he isn’t conducting a more orthodox campaign focused on the handful of swing states expected to decide the election.
The Republican presidential nominee and former president on Friday will hold a rally in Aurora, Colorado, a state President Joe Biden won by over 13 points in 2020 and which polls suggest is securely in Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris’ camp for November. The following day, Trump is hosting a rally in Coachella, California, a state he lost by nearly 20 points in 2020. Trump is also planning to hold a rally in New York City’s iconic Madison Square Garden on October 27, according to NBC News, despite Biden winning the state by over 20 points in 2020.
It comes as Trump’s odds of winning November’s election have improved sharply, according to polling website FiveThirtyEight, from 36 percent on September 18 to 47 percent on Wednesday. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found Trump ahead by three points and two points respectively in the key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, both of which he lost in 2020. The same survey also put him three points behind in Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 but lost four years later.
Republican operative Matthew Bartlett, who described Trump to NBC News as the “most unorthodox candidate in modern history,” suggested his focus on Democratic states could be a bid to change the GOP voting base.
“This does not seem like a campaign putting their candidate in critical vote rich or swing vote locations—it seems more like a candidate who wants his campaign to put on rallies for optics and vibes.
U.S. Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks at a campaign rally at Santander Arena in Reading, Pennsylvania, on October 9. Trump is due to hold rallies in the Democratic strongholds of California, Colorado and New York.
JIM WATSON/AFP/GETTY
“In 2016, Trump realigned the party to be much more rural and working class; now in 2024, he is trying to expand his voting base along certain cultural lines that may eat away at traditional Democratic voting blocs.”
A recent analysis of national polling by Newsweek found Harris has the support of 56 percent of Hispanic voters, down from the 59 percent Biden received in 2020.
A Morning Consult poll conducted in August found Trump has doubled his support with Black voters compared to 2020. Holding rallies in areas like Coachella and New York would likely produce a more diverse audience in terms of spectators, and could help Trump strengthen his appeal with these new target voters.
An alternative explanation is that Trump is campaigning in California, Colorado and New York—despite these seats leaning heavily toward Harris and there being no competitive Senate races—because he wants to shore up Democratic control of the House.
Republicans flipped the House in 2022 and hold a slim eight-seat majority. They are widely expected to make gains in the Senate, such as the West Virginia seat occupied by independent Joe Manchin, so maintaining House control could give the party the edge in both chambers of Congress.
In California, Republican Representatives Young Kim and Ken Calvert are defending House Districts 40 and 41 respectively, both of which receive Los Angeles media that would likely focus heavily on a Coachella rally. In New York, Representative Anthony D’Esposito is hoping to hold Nassau County’s 4th District, an area that Biden won by 15 points in 2020.
Trump is also due to hold a series of rallies in swing states over the next few days, including in Reno, Nevada, on Friday, Prescott Valley in Arizona on Sunday and Duluth, Georgia, on October 23.
Newsweek contacted the Trump campaign via email for comment.
