Why Kamala Harris Polling Boost Could be a Mirage

Vice President Kamala Harris has recently experienced a noticeable rise in polling, outpacing former President Donald Trump in several key national surveys—but one expert told Newsweek why those numbers could be a mirage.

Political analysts have coined the term “Harris Honeymoon” to describe the initial boost she received entering the race over a month ago after Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

Now, polls show Harris gaining ground and even taking a lede against Trump, particularly among key voter groups. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll released this week shows Harris leading Trump by 5 percentage points, 48 percent to 43 percent, marking an 8-point swing in the Democrats‘ favor since Biden’s departure in July.

Harris has notably improved her standing among Black voters, Hispanic voters, and those under 35, outperforming Biden’s performance in these demographics by double digits.

While this bump is significant, its longevity is uncertain. Despite these encouraging signs for the Harris-Walz ticket, polling experts remain cautious, highlighting the persistent issues in polling accuracy that have plagued recent elections, particularly when Trump is involved.

“One of the main issues is that Trump’s base is harder to reach through traditional polling methods,” Scott Keeter, senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, explained to Newsweek. “Trump supporters tend to have lower levels of trust in institutions, including those conducting polls, which can skew results.”

Confidence in U.S. public opinion polling was undermined by errors in the 2016 and 2020 elections. In both cases, many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump, exposing significant limitations in polling methods.

Since then, pollsters have worked to improve their methods, including the increased use of online and text message surveys. As a result, polling today differs from 2016. In fact, 61 percent of U.S. polling organizations that conducted and publicly released national surveys in both 2016 and 2022 used different methods in 2022. This evolution in polling methods has continued beyond 2022.

But as Keeter points out, there’s no guarantee these changes will resolve the accuracy problems seen in previous elections.

“Pollsters are trying new techniques, but it’s impossible to know if these will fully capture the electorate’s preferences, especially with the unpredictable dynamics of a presidential election year,” he said.

“There’s a suspicion that Trump supporters exhibit lower levels of trust in institutions, including those that conduct public opinion polls. If they opt out of participating due to this distrust, it leads to underrepresentation in the polls. This is one of the primary reasons behind the polling errors observed in 2016 and 2020,” he said.

Trump’s Presence Makes Polls Difficult to Predict

In the midterms following the 2020 elections, polling performed better, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. FiveThirtyEight found that “polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party.”

However, many Americans remain skeptical that polling can accurately paint a portrait of the public’s political preferences.

“We still don’t know if Trump’s presence in the election brings out a different type of voter that’s harder for pollsters to identify. We’re encouraged by the 2022 results, but we can’t be sure that the issues from 2020 have been fully resolved,” Keeter explains.

Pre-election surveys experienced significant errors—particularly at the state level—in both 2016 and 2020 when Trump was on the ballot. However, they performed more reliably during the 2018 and 2022 midterms, when he was not.

Unlike midterm elections, which generally draw a smaller and more consistent voter base, presidential elections attract a broader and often less predictable electorate. The challenge isn’t just about reaching voters in polls but accurately predicting who will actually turn out to vote.

“This variability can make accurate polling difficult, as new and infrequent voters are harder to account for,” Keeter explained to Newsweek. “One explanation for the errors in previous elections is that new voters, who hadn’t voted before, showed up and supported Donald Trump. New voters are difficult for pollsters to account for because they don’t have a voting record, making them more invisible,” he added.

A potential concern with Harris’s current polling numbers is that they might represent a temporary “bounce”—a short-term boost resulting from positive, event-driven media coverage. Such spikes are often seen after debates or conventions, and Harris’s recent surge appears to follow this familiar pattern.

Despite the renewed optimism felt throughout the convention and campaign, Democrats are cautiously tempering their enthusiasm.

“This is going to be a tight race until the end,” Harris told supporters on Thursday at a packed arena in Savannah, Georgia. Despite recent polls showing a close race in key swing states and a slight national lead, Harris urged the crowd at Enmarket Arena, “Let’s not focus too much on the polls because we’re running as the underdog.”

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