Conservative political activist Charlie Kirk said on his podcast Monday that former President Donald Trump is “not safe” in terms of his polling numbers in North Carolina.
Polls from FiveThirtyEight show Republican presidential nominee Trump with 47.7 percent of the vote on Monday, a .1-point lead over the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, who stands at 47.5 percent of the vote.
“We need everybody in North Carolina to perk up and wake up,” Kirk said, on his Ask Me Anything Episode 199. “It is not safe territory right now. I’m not saying it’s danger territory, but it is not safe.”
A map highlighting North Carolina. Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk, inset. He says the state is no longer safe Trump voting territory.
Flourish/AP Photo/Lynne Sladky
“This is a very important place, a very important state,” Trump said during a speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina last week.
Data from AtlasIntel found Harris leading in North Carolina 50.5 percent to 48.1 in a poll conducted between September 20 and 25.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment but did not hear back immediately.
Last week, Harris had the lead in terms of national polling averages, according to numbers crunched by The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling. Data from all three pollsters show Trump leading in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
New data from Decision Desk HQ suggests that those GOP efforts could be paying off. The Democrats‘ edge in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk significantly in key states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida where that advantage has declined over 35 percent, nearly 15 percent and over 5 percent, respectively.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, in Mint Hill, N.C. He is on shaky ground in North Carolina, says supporter Charlie Kirk.
AP Photo/Evan Vucci
“Trump could easily prevail if he gains ground in key states—or if the polls are already underestimating him,” Nate Cohn, The NYT‘s chief political analyst, wrote. “A shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.”
The path to victory in the Electoral College system is through swing states, which are states where the electorate is more mixed in terms of which political party they voted for in the past. This election cycle, the winner will need to carry some or all of the following seven states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
According to pollster Nate Silver‘s models run on Sunday, Harris won all seven swing states 5,273 times out of the 70,000 simulations. The second most likely scenario in the simulations was that Trump wins all seven swing states.
If Trump wins just Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia in November, the former president will have enough votes to be declared the overall winner, barring no upsets elsewhere.
Trump could also win by beating Harris in the four Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, and flipping just one of Wisconsin or Michigan, two states where Trump is narrowing Harris’ lead.
Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer told CNN that there is “an incredible opportunity for Kamala Harris to win North Carolina” because the state’s voters “will carefully consider each candidate, zigzagging their way down the ballot.”
Even still, North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes have only once gone to a Democrat since 1980.
“I’m going to come to North Carolina a couple of times this fall because it’s not where it should be,” Kirk said. “North Carolina was not one of the states we were focused on over the summer. We were always focused on other places.”
