As Valentine’s Day approaches, the craving for chocolate intensifies. But chocolate continues to face a significant challenge: Climate change is threatening cacao production, particularly in West Africa, which produces around 70% of the world’s supply. Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns are disrupting cacao crops, affecting both the quantity and quality of beans — and driving up prices for consumers.
Cocoa prices surged 136% between July 2022 and February 2024, according to UNCTAD commodities price monitoring. For the first time, the price per metric ton on the futures market crossed $10,000 last March, according to the United Nations trade agency, which attributed the increases in part to climate change.
A new analysis by scientists at research nonprofit Climate Central highlights how climate change has pushed temperatures above the optimal range for cacao trees in Western Africa. This analysis is “the first that we know of that really tries to put a number on how much humans and climate change are influencing cocoa trees and cocoa production from West Africa,” said Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central.
West African countries have long been the heart of cocoa production, producing around 3.48 million metric tons of cocoa beans in the 2022-2023 season. This massive output is vital to the global chocolate industry, where it takes about 400 cocoa beans to make just one pound of chocolate. Millions of farmers depend on the crop for their livelihoods. In Ghana, cocoa production provides employment for 3.2 million farmers and workers, more than 10% of its total population. “Climate change is threatening the existence of cocoa farmers and their sources of livelihoods,” says cocoa farmer Emmanuel Essah-Mensa from Ghana, who advises several hundred cocoa farms.
Cacao trees are grown in regions within 10 degrees north and south of the equator where the climate is ideal for its cultivation. The crop — the raw, unprocessed form of cocoa beans — has two primary harvest periods in Western Africa: the main crop harvest from September to March and the mid-crop from May to August. After flowering, it takes about five to six months for the pods to mature. Once ripe, the pods are harvested by hand and then split open to extract the seeds, which undergo fermentation and drying processes to develop the flavors essential for chocolate production.
The ideal temperature range for cacao growth is up to 32 degrees Celsius, or 89.6 Fahrenheit, but recent trends indicate that climate change is increasing the number of days above this range. Climate Central examined temperature data from 44 cacao-producing districts, regions, or states in West Africa, including Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria. Over the past decade, approximately two-thirds of the cacao-growing region faced an increase of at least an additional six weeks’ worth of days each year hotter than is ideal for the trees due to climate change, while one-third experienced at least eight additional weeks of excessive heat.
Excessive heat severely impacts cacao production. Cacao plants rely on stable temperatures for proper photosynthesis, and too many hot days can affect photosynthesis, leading to shriveled flowers and smaller, rotting cacao pods.
The impact of climate change extends beyond heat stress. Cacao trees are also sensitive to rainfall patterns. Cacao thrives when rainfall totals between 1,500 and 2,000 millimeters, or about 59 to 79 inches annually, with no dry spells longer than three months, according to the International Cocoa Organization . In July 2024, parts of Côte d’Ivoire saw 40% more rainfall than usual, flooding fields and damaging crops, while December brought little rain to the region, which slows photosynthesis, leading to fewer flowers and more underdeveloped beans. Erratic rainfall patterns are leaving farmers with unpredictable growing conditions, contributing to lower harvests and higher prices.
To adapt, some farmers are turning to diverse, nature-friendly agricultural practices, such as planting taller trees between cacao plants, creating healthy fertile soils that hold onto moisture and providing protective shade for cacao plants. However, such strategies are not foolproof and can take time to implement. The future of cacao farming in a warming world remains uncertain, and ongoing challenges threaten to continue driving up the price of chocolate, making your favorite sweet treat pricier to enjoy.
