Vice President Kamala Harris has a thin lead over Donald Trump in six swing states, according to new polling.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted between September 19 and 25 shows Harris ahead by two and seven points in all of the seven swing states, apart from Georgia, where she is tied with the former president, on 49 percent each.
Harris holds her largest lead in Nevada, where she is ahead by seven points, with 52 percent to Trump’s 45 percent. In Pennsylvania, she leads by five points, polling at 51 percent compared to Trump’s 46 percent.
President Joe Biden secured both states in 2020, while Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, and Biden took Nevada.
Harris also leads by three points in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while her smallest advantage is in North Carolina, where she is ahead by two points.
Biden flipped Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin to the Democrats in 2020, while Trump carried North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020.
Harris’ lead in five of the seven states, excluding Nevada and Pennsylvania, is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus three to four percentage points, underscoring the closeness of the race in the battleground states and that November’s election is still anybody’s to win.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.
Vice President Kamala Harris at an event on gun violence at the White House in Washington, Thursday, September 26, 2024. Harris is leading Trump in six swing states, new polling shows.
AP/Susan Walsh
Nonetheless, the poll indicates the Harris campaign is benefiting from her agenda of focusing on the economy, which polls have consistently shown is the most important issue to swing state voters.
While the poll showed Trump has a lead over Harris of four percentage points on the economy, his lead was down from six points in August.
Meanwhile, when likely voters were asked who they trust more to manage the cost of everyday goods, the results were nearly even: 47 percent favored Trump, while 46 percent chose Harris.
However, Harris had a significant 11-point lead when it came to who voters trust to support the middle class.
Harris’ economic agenda has included pledges to build more affordable housing, offer down payment assistance to first-time homebuyers and a promise to make the wealthy pay more in taxes.
Meanwhile, the economy has taken a backseat in Trump’s campaign in favor of focusing on immigration and crime.
Overall, Harris is ahead by three percentage points among likely voters, a lead that is two points greater than last month. When third party candidates are included, Harris’ lead grows to four percentage points among likely swing-state voters.
Eli Yokley, US politics analyst for Morning Consult, warned her lead may not be a reason to celebrate, as Trump’s strength lies in attracting unlikely voters.
“Donald Trump’s political magic, when he’s been on the ballot, is to bring in voters from the periphery who may not be in likely voter samples,” he told Bloomberg.
The poll surveyed 5,692 likely voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and had an overall margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll is more favorable for Harris than other recent public polls, which have shown her trailing Trump in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia and gaining just a marginal lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
As of Friday morning, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows Trump is leading Harris by one point in Arizona and Georgia, while Harris leads by between one and three points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The two candidates are tied in North Carolina, the state with the closest race nationwide.
Pollster Nate Silver‘s model also shows that Trump is ahead by one point in Arizona and Georgia, while Harris leads by between one and two points in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump leads Harris in North Carolina by 0.5 points.
Previous polling from last week showed that Trump was leading in three of the swing states.
The poll, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College between September 17 and 21, found that Trump had a lead of two to five points over Harris in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.
Both campaigns are targeting these three Sun Belt states, viewed as crucial to secure victory in November.
In Arizona, the former president was five points ahead of Harris, on 50 percent to her 45 percent.
A Times/Siena poll in August found the vice president leading by four percentage points in the Grand Canyon state.
In Georgia, a state that Biden flipped blue by a narrow margin in 2020, Trump had a lead of four points, with 49 percent of the vote to Harris’s 45 percent.
Trump also led Harris in North Carolina by two points, on 49 percent to Harris’ 45 percent. North Carolina has not voted Democrat since 2008, with Trump winning it by under 75,000 votes in 2020.
The poll surveyed 116,000 voters and had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points across the three states.
