As the U.S. legal system and lawmakers move to force a change at TikTok, it’s worth looking at TikTok and its owner ByteDance through a different prism.
Whatever results from TikTok’s current legal proceedings in Washington, TikTok will likely survive, and it might not look, feel, or differ that much from TikTok today.
Recall that in April, President Joe Biden signed a law banning Chinese-owned TikTok unless it is sold within a year. This law has bipartisan support; it’s a much more formidable action than the previous administration’s attempts to ban TikTok.
The TikTok logo is seen.
Silas Stein/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
During the Trump administration, efforts were made through the U.S. Commerce Department, CIFIUS (a congressional committee which watches foreign investment), and the federal courts to ban or “de-platform” TikTok, all to no avail. There’s also been a variety of state legal actions and bans.
But the new law may not result in any visible disruption to TikTok or its reported 170 million U.S. users. Legal challenges and technology hurdles will doubtless cause delays, and TikTok has reportedly started preparing a special “U.S. algorithm,” which may or may not address American concerns about data privacy and national security.
There’s little doubt China wants TikTok to stay in place.
For China, it’s a strategic asset, perhaps even a propaganda tool if China invades Taiwan. TikTok is unquestionably a premier member of China’s global marketing wave, whether that’s a formal or informal designation. And TikTok’s owner ByteDance has vaulted into the uppermost tier of global tech titans, a true competitor to American leaders like Meta, Google, and Snap.
The key issue at play in a U.S. courtroom is essentially free speech versus national security. Pragmatically, it’s clear that “domesticating” TikTok may be enough to satisfy U.S. lawmakers rather than shutting it down.
But remember that many in the U.S. love TikTok, even if more of them support a ban. It’s embedded itself in pop culture as well as the entertainment industry. Industries like music rely on it, even as they’ve had to make major strategic changes to get arms around TikTok and generate revenue. TikTok is crucial for new music artists to break into the public eye, even as many of these new stars are extremely short-lived compared to artists of a different vintage.
It’s also essential to marketing. Hollywood studios and streamers need TikTok to break both small and big-budgeted motion pictures through the digital clutter and limited attention spans of younger audiences.
And a new thing called the “creator economy” has developed, in part due to TikTok. This is a growing, disruptive American–led industry with much bigger business challenges than national security or privacy considerations, but TikTok has certainly played a positive role in supporting it. Any transition could impact the creator economy.
Many small businesses rely on it as well. TikTok has also become a central player for brands and Madison Avenue seeking digital audiences. TikTok has a strategy targeting enterprise partners and seeks to become something closer to Amazon with its growing marketplace.
Even politicians use it, at least to promote themselves.
So, it’s hard to doubt everything TikTok has argued in front of Congress and the U.S. courts. They’ve clearly made efforts to create a global tech titan, one which has captured mindshare and more.
But even if TikTok fails in court and the law takes effect, beware—trying to effectively transition or manage a “U.S. version” of TikTok might be tricky at best, and much harder to pull off than politicians or courts think. TikTok, after all, is mostly user generated content. Candidly, it’s hard to see how much of that content is a threat or of any value to any government.
Even if the law’s concern is preventing propaganda, privacy, and security for Americans, “managing content” might prove very hard for an American TikTok, just as it is for other social networks. A U.S. algorithm may wind up serving the same purpose for China as the old one. It’s hard to see how a domesticated algorithm would function, and even harder to see how anyone but TikTok’s current Chinese management could build or customize a new one.
Even with a sale to a U.S. interest, TikTok might also still be a vehicle for stirring up fake information, racism, and even antisemitism.
These are tall orders to manage. And the result may be like that old song, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.”
Seth A. Schachner is managing director of Strat Americas.
The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.
