Now that we have the travel day behind us, today features a full slate of 15 MLB games to bet on. For this article, we will be diving into MLB player props besides home runs.
Check out Newsweek’s Dinger Tuesday picks for July 30 here.
Play 1: Tyler Glasnow under 5.5 strikeouts (+115) Bet365
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET
It is always scary taking an under strikeout prop for Glasnow, but if there was ever a time to do it, it would be in this matchup against the Padres. This will be Glasnow’s first start back after his return from the injured list, and that is a huge part of this bet. Ballpark Pal projects Glasnow for fewer than six innings, while Linestar projecst him for roughly 14 outs, as the Dodgers are expected to be careful with his pitch-count.
It does not take a rocket scientist to get the logic of fewer innings pitched = less chances to rack up a bunch of strikeouts, which is what we are betting on here. Glasnow’s first start of the year happened to also be against these Padres, and in that game, he went five innings, with only four strikeouts. After that, he had an eight-day break before his next start, in which he went six innings with only five strikeouts. In only three of his next 16 starts did he go under 5.5 strikeouts.
The Padres have among thelowest strikeout rates in all of MLB. On the season, they have a team strikeout rate of 18.1% against right-handed pitching, and over the last 30 days, that number has dropped to 17.4%, including 17.3% over the past 14 days.
Yes, Glasnow has elite strikeout stuff, but in a game where he projects to have a lower pitch count, and against a Padres lineup that rarely strikes out, Under 5.5 is a solid play at +115.
Play 2: Bryan Reynolds over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) DraftKings
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET
Reynolds does admittedly have a tough matchup against a good pitcher in Hunter Brown of the Astros, but he has some matchup advantages in his favor that make this a good value play up at +145 odds. Let’s start with Brown first, as his biggest issue is allowing solid contact and power to left-handed hitters. Eight of Brown’s 14 home runs allowed this season have come against lefties, along with 10 the 13 doubles he has allowed.
Righties hit .282 against Brown, while lefties only hit .236 against him, but despite that, his slugging allowed goes from .390 against RHH to .402 against LHH. The biggest reason for this increase is his HardHit rate allowed, which goes from a low 19.9% against RHH to 25.5% against LHH. This matches up perfectly for Reynolds, who is a switch-hitter who will be batting lefty against Brown, while Reynolds is also better against right-handed pitching.
Reynolds’ line-drive rate, fly-ball rate, pull-rate and HardHit rate are all higher against RHP compared to lefties, while his batting average, slugging, OPS & wOBA are all higher against RHP as well. Reynolds also crushes 4-seam fastballs — hitting .342 against 4-seamers with a .567 slugging, .983 OPS and .225 ISO rate — and Brown throws a 4-seam FB over 40% of the time. All we need is Reynolds to hit one in the gap and we are cashing this bad boy.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
