NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds: Rodgers, Burrow Lead QB-Heavy Field

Oddsmakers see two clear favorites in the battle for 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

The Jets’ Aaron Rodgers and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow are just two of a handful of signal-callers who missed most of 2023 due to injuries, but they’re understandably the favorites for this award given the careers they’ve had to date.

In addition to Rodgers and Burrow, Kirk Cousins has a real chance at winning this award in his first season as an Atlanta Falcon. Second-year Colts QB Anthony Richardson and the Giants’ Daniel Jones are among the other QBs with a chance to take home this award.

The recent comeback player of the year winners include Joe Flacco in 2023, Geno Smith in 2022, Joe Burrow in 2021, Alex Smith in 2020 and Ryan Tannehill in 2019. Dating back to 2009, 11 of the last 15 winners of the award were quarterbacks.

2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Browns RB Nick Chubb is the only non-QB among the six players who currently have the shortest odds for this award:

2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Analysis

Can anyone top Aaron Rodgers?

Rodgers and the Jets are, once again, among the biggest offseason stories in the NFL.

There’s no guarantee that the 40-year-old Rodgers bounces back to the heights he reached in Green Bay. But if he can just replicate what we saw from him in 2022 (arguably his worst full season as a Packer), that would likely be enough for the defensivel stout Jets — who won seven games apiece in 2022 and 2023 despite abysmal quarterback play — to reach at least 10 wins for the first time since 2015.

There’s not much value in taking Rodgers at +125 or +130, but at +200 (his current price at FanDuel), he’s worth a small play given how well-positioned he and the Jets are to dominate the headlines — assuming, of course, that he’s able to stay on the field.

Joe Burrow Seeks to Make History

Burrow would not be the first player in NFL history to win Comeback Player of the Year multiple times. Former Jet Chad Pennington won NFL CPOY in 2006 with New York and earned the award again in 2008 as a Dolphin. Still, Burrow has a shot at a remarkable, almost unprecedented feat in just his fifth season in the league. He won Comeback Player of the Year in the second season of his career (2021) following an injury that ended his rookie campaign after 10 games in 2020.

In 2024, a healthy Burrow could make Cincinnati a contender in the AFC after he dealt with a calf injury — and later, a broken wrist — a year ago. This offseason, the Bengals lost RB Joe Mixon and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who took over as head coach of the Tennessee Titans, but upgraded their O-line by adding first-round pick Amarius Mims at tackle and signing tackle Trent Brown in free agency.

In addition to Mixon’s replacement, Zack Moss, at RB, the Bengals’ offense will also have new starters at WR3, where rookie third-rounder Jermaine Burton is replacing Tyler Boyd, and TE, where free-agent signing Mike Gesicki is looking to bounce back from a disappointing one-year stint in New England.

As long as Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy, this offense could be dangerous, but can it resemble the unit that carried Cincinnati to the Super Bowl in 2021 and the AFC Championship Game in 2022?

That feels like a big ask of Burrow and Co. but he’s awfully tempting at +300 at DraftKings, especially considering A) Rodgers’ age and B) Burrow’s consistently impressive play when healthy throughout his career.

Could Nick Chubb beat out the QBs?

Chubb, 28, has a chance to win this award despite playing a position that has not produced the NFL‘s comeback player of the year since the 1960s (Baltimore Colts HB Lenny Moore in ’64 and L.A. Rams FB Dick Bass in ’66).

The four-time Pro Bowler could be in his prime for a few more seasons, but right now, he’s still recovering from a left knee injury last September that required multiple surgeries.

He started training camp this year for the Browns on the active/physically unable to perform list and is currently “day to day” in his return. Still, he offers some promise for anyone bullish on a big recovery by a player who ran for 40 touchdowns from 2019-2022 and boasts an impressive career yards-per-carry average of 5.3.

Best Comeback Player of the Year Longshot Bet: Kyler Murray

The Cardinals’ signal-caller offers serious upside at FanDuel. His FD odds to win this award are +4500 — considerably longer than those available at DraftKings (+2500), bet365 (+300) and Caesars (+2200).

Murray, the AP offensive rookie of the year in 2019 and a Pro Bowler in 2020 and 2021, still has massive potential, especially if rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. lives up to the hype. In addition to Harrison, Murray also has a talented pass-catcher at tight end.

Trey McBride, who is entering his third season in the league, looked like one of the NFL‘s next big pass-catching threats at his position in 2023, with 81 catches for 825 yards and three TDs on 106 targets.

Given that Murray is coming off not one but two down years, if he, Harrison, McBride and RB James Conner — who is coming off a 1,000-yard season on the ground in just 13 starts last season — can put up points this year, he could put himself in the Comeback Player of the Year conversation.

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