With the first post-presidential debate poll showing VP Kamala Harris leading over former President Donald Trump, we asked AI chatbot ChatGPT who might win if there was a rematch.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after their first head-to-head debate, Harris is leading Trump 47 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, which gives her a five-point lead. Would ChatGPT predict a similar outcome if there were a second debate? Newsweek asked the generative AI tool for its ‘thoughts.’
First, we fed ChatGPT with a detailed prompt and provided it with a full transcript of the first debate for analysis: “You are an expert political commentator. You watched the first debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, making notes on their strongest and weakest talking points, the language they used, and how they verbally engaged with each other. Attached is a transcript of this debate.
“According to a flash poll conducted by CNN following Tuesday’s debate, Harris won the battle, with 63 percent of respondents declaring her victorious. I want you to make an educated guess as to who might win, if they were to have a second debate. Please provide reasoning for your answer,” continued our prompt.
To start with, ChatGPT said that “based on the content of the first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, I would predict that Harris would likely continue to perform well if there were a second debate”. While not a prediction of an outright win, the AI chatbot was making what seemed like a carefully calibrated educated guess.
It went on to provide four reasons why it thinks Harris might continue to outperform Trump. The first was about debate structure and focus, explaining that Harris maintained a disciplined focus on key issues such as the economy, healthcare, and abortion rights.
“She framed her points within the framework of middle-class support and opportunity, aligning with popular policy stances that appeal to a broad base. Trump’s tendency to engage in aggressive rhetoric and focus on grievances and past controversies, such as the 2020 election and immigration issues, did not seem to resonate as effectively with undecided voters in the first debate.”
ChatGPT also analyzed the first debate for verbal engagement and clarity, as requested: “Harris was direct in confronting Trump’s positions, often labeling his statements as ‘lies’ and offering clear rebuttals on subjects like abortion and health care.”
“Trump’s approach relied heavily on attacking Harris, often making sweeping claims, such as Harris being a ‘Marxist’ or making inaccurate claims about immigration and the economy. This might have weakened his ability to appeal to moderate voters, who may prioritize fact-based arguments.”
While the third reason was based on polling results, drawing on the CNN flash poll, the final reason was that Harris seems to succeed in emotionally engaging with viewers by focusing on personal stories, such as her upbringing and experiences with small businesses and health care.
By contrast, “Trump, while doubling down on grievances and playing to his base, seemed less effective in presenting a vision for the future beyond critiquing the past.”
We went further and asked ChatGPT what it thought each candidate’s weakest talking points were in the first debate. For Trump, the AI chatbot listed seven: election denial and January 6, immigration and crime claims, tariffs and economic plan, handling of COVID-19 and public health, personal attacks and incoherent responses, abortion and reproductive rights, and foreign policy and relations with dictators.
On the topic of January 6, it said: “Many voters, particularly moderates and independents, are fatigued by Trump’s focus on the 2020 election.”
VP Kamala Harris shakes hands with former President Donald Trump during their first debate on September 10. Newsweek asked OpenAI’s ChatGPT to predict who might win if there was a second debate between the two candidates.
SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images
Overall, it said: “Trump’s weakest points in the debate revolved around his fixation on past grievances (2020 election), unsubstantiated claims (immigration and crime), and an inconsistent foreign policy narrative. These points likely played into Harris’s hands, as she was able to counter them with clear policy stances and fact-based rebuttals, appealing to voters looking for stability and coherent leadership.”
On the other hand, ChatGPT also listed seven weak talking points of Harris’: immigration and border security, shifting policy positions, economic message, defense of the Biden administration, abortion and Roe v. Wade, foreign policy and national security, and tone and dismissiveness.
On the latter, the chatbot said: “While Harris was composed for most of the debate, there were moments where she appeared dismissive or condescending, especially in her responses to Trump’s more outlandish claims. Phrases like ‘we’re going to hear a bunch of lies’ or her audibly saying ‘don’t lie’ during Trump’s speaking time could come across as unprofessional or overly combative.”
ChatGPT went on to say that “while these moments may have energized her base, they could have alienated undecided voters who prefer a more civil or restrained tone in debates. This dismissiveness, though understandable in the context of Trump’s rhetoric, might not appeal to voters looking for leaders who engage in policy discussion without getting drawn into personal attacks.”
Newsweek reached out via email to a press contact for comment for both Harris and Trump.
